US Open draw
http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf
http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ws/wsdraw.pdf
Obvious thing is that Murray is Nadals half. Federers draw is apparently not overly tough for the most part.
my analysis:
1st quarter:
Rafa should have no problems in 1st, 2nd and 3rd round. But watch it in 4th round: Ljubicic could be veeeery dangerous if is serving well, specially on hard courts. Actually, Ivan beat Rafa in Indian Wells a few months ago.
Rafa got lucky and got Verdasco, BUT got very unlucky and got Gulbis/Nalbandian for the QF.
Not easy at all.
My pick: El Rey David
2nd quarter:
Murray needs to be careful with Wawrinka in 3rd round and Querrey/Almagro in 4th. If he can go trough that, Isner or Berdych would be waiting...
OUCH.
However, Murray is playing great and if he's healthy, he should go trough that extremely hard path.
My pick: Murray
3rd quarter:
Djokovic has a quiet path in 1st, 2nd and 3rd round, but in 4th round has a very big problem: Baghdatis/Fish. So big that i think
he will lose. So,
the lucky one will be Roddick, who can beat Kolya in no time.
My pick: Roddick
4th quarter:
Federer calm draw
will be shaked in 3th round: Hewitt, who beat him a couple months ago in Halle's final. However, the good shape of Roger (final in Toronto and title in Cincy) plus the bad shape of Lleyton (lost his 1st match in Atlanta and Washington and in his 2nd at Cincy) is very good news to Fedophiles.
In 4th round he would face Ferrero/Melzer. Both players are having a good 2010 (grand slam SF for Jurgen, and 3 titles -clay- for Juanqui),
but their success has been in clay. Their recent form: Juanqui hasn't played a single hard-court match this summer. Actually, he hasn't played any match in 5 weeks. And Melzer, lost his 1st match in Toronto, and his 2nd in Cincy. No problems for Roger here.
The
bad news for Rogerholics comes in the QF: Soderling could be waiting. However, the swedish assasin will be menaced by Fernando Gonzalez (coming from an injury) and more seriously, by Marin Cilic. Robin should prevail and get Roger in QFs. His recent form isn't too shiny: lost in R16 in Toronto and Cincy... BUT against Nalbandian and Roddick, so, it's no shame.
Bottom line,
Roger should prevail, but with a very strong effort (maybe 5 sets).
Semifinals:
Murray defeat Nalbandian (in an epic 5-setter)
Federer defeat Roddick (again.)
Final:
Roger vs Murray... awesome match. If Roger plays at his best, there's no chance for Andy. But if Roger wakes up shaky that Sunday, and Murray played agressive, has a very good chance.
To be honest, could go either way.
