Since 2007 the Dolphins have used 8 different receivers in the slot since they traded Welker. The average number of catches per game against the Patriots was roughly 12 for an average of just under 90 yards a game. For his Dolphin career against the Patriots, Welker averaged just over 7 catches for a little more than 55 yards per game. Looking deeper, Welker had a DYAR value of 8 against the Pats in his dolphin career, and the slot receivers for the Dolphins (facing the Pats) since have averaged 12. If anything, the Dolphins have gotten better production from their slot guys without Welker. Additionally, the Patriots haven't used him anywhere near as often on kick or punt return, essentially negating his value there. What did change with the addition of Welker was the production that the Patriots got from the slot. They went from a DYAR in the slot of 120 without Welker to 276 with Welker. Additionally, the average salary of a WR with similar numbers to Welker was roughly $5 million more than what he earned, even after signing an extension. In essence, Belichick recognized that Welker would be a valuable, cheap asset to the Patriots themselves, rather than being motivated to take an asset from a rival.
It's generally monumentally idiotic to trade for a player for the explicit purpose of preventing him from hurting your team. In the case of Welker, Belichick recognized an undervalued asset as a receiver in Welker, and made the value-based call to trade him. The 7th round draft pick is of absolutely no value at all, it might as well have been cash, seeing as in the past 10 years, players taken in the 7th round have had a positive DYAR value exactly twice, (and both were for losing teams). Really, giving away the second rounder wasn't much of a sacrifice either, as the Patriots already had the 49ers first round pick in the trade that begot Joe Staley. Even in the case that Welker had been exactly league average, (he's been substantially above league average in terms of DYAR since he joined the Patriots), that trade is STILL an absolute fleecing of the Dolphins.
Long story short, Belichick saw Welker was undervalued as receiver, could be had for cheap, and reaped the benefits. The fact that he had a couple of good games against the Pats had no bearing whatsoever, and making a trade based on them would have been mind-numbingly stupid, and wholly unlike Belichick in his approach to talent.
First, I'm not going to go into the stats you cite as I've found on a couple of occasions you apparently have a willingness to say and even quote things that upon looking into them there has been either no evidence of or what was actually said or concluded was grossly misrepresented by you, etc.
Even though Welker was very effective in a variety of ways against the competition...(not just catching the ball:2 cents
I never made the case that was the
only reason they traded for him. The Dolphins had in Welker a top k/o returner, punt returner and leading Receiver...that's in addition to having kicked a FG and Ex pt. against the Pats. The Pats may not have traded to get Welker to do all those things
for them...but they made sure he wouldn't be doing it
against them in a Dolphins uniform.
But let's assume what you say is true.
I guess the first questions would be in response to what the Dolphins have done at slot since the trade would be, how many different slot receivers have the Patriots used and what has he done and do you honestly believe they wouldn't take Welker back in their stead in a minute?
Like I said, I'm not even going to mis-mash through the numbers you cite because who knows how you arrived at them based on some of what I've found looking into other things you've asserted in the past.
But generally if a player averages 8 catches against one team, that's damned good. Never mind the assertion the Dolphins have used 8 different players (by some combination you've calculated) to exceed the production of 1.
I honestly can't even reconcile your position on the Pats trading a 2nd + picks for Welker. Your position on that is ...well, never mind that. But but :1orglaugh just in the simplest of terms...wouldn't a team giving up 2nd rd. pick alone expect what they would be getting to have the talent potential of a 2nd round pick?? EVEN IF you just drafted a player in the 2nd rd. youre not also giving up another pick to get him.
:1orglaugh I seriously have no words for your analysis on that.:1orglaugh
BTW, no personnel guy (HC/GM) is going to give up a 2nd rd. pick (let alone another pick with it) for a player not worth AT LEAST that value no matter how many first rd. picks they have. They don't characterize their value in a rd. decreasing just because they have a better position in another round.
A GM/Coach could have 5 first round picks in a draft and the only way that would affect their view on their second rd. pick worthy of being given away is if they believed there were only 5 players worth taking in the entire draft.
Besides, the Pats also had to compete with the Vikings to get Welker as well...this
should end the debate....
According to agent Vann McElroy, the Patriots and Vikings were the final teams vying for Welker's services. Both wanted Welker, hence their calls to McElroy as free agency began March 2, but they also knew that simply outbidding the other wasn't going to be enough. Because Welker was a restricted free agent, the Dolphins retained the right to match any offer he received.
On the second day of free agency, McElroy put together a rich contract offer to gauge the true level of interest. He knew he didn't have to sell Welker to Minnesota because the team's vice president of player personnel, Rick Spielman, was the Dolphins' general manager in 2004 when Miami signed Welker.
So there was mild surprise when it was the Patriots who jumped into a lead position, saying they would be willing to meet the asking price unless there was a last-minute change of heart based on an in-person interview. The Patriots knew they liked Welker - he shredded them in a nine-catch performance last year - but wanted to get to know him better and arranged to meet him on the fourth night of free agency.
"Once he got on the plane, we felt like it was going to take place," McElroy recalled. "New England was the team that stepped up and said, 'You know what? Let's not mess around.' On the other side, I think Minnesota was more in the mind-set of negotiating a little bit, seeing if the situation might move to another position."
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2007/10/17/patriots_pounced_fast_to_grab_welker/
If you think it stupid to acquire an asset of your competition then you either live in a world different from the rest of us or don't know enough about how things really work as the practice is attempted an uncountable amount of times per day. Obviously it doesn't always work as the competition usually doubles down to keep their asset.
