I'm surprised that *anyone* is surprised it's so close.
Biden is a wet blanket candidate. He's flotsam. He's another Hillary Clinton. He's a candidate the Democrats knew wouldn't rock the boat too much and would hopefully do just enough to beat Trump.
And it might just work, but it was a hell of a risk after 2016. But what we're seeing over there, and we've seen the same in the UK, is the problem of a two party state for the left-wing. For Conservatives / Republicans, it's a perfect system because they're almost all pulling in the same direction. And even if they aren't, as we've seen with that spineless turd Lindsay Graham, they'll eventually fall into line because the alternative is too horrendous to comprehend.
The left is split though. Biden is a centrist, you couldn't even call him centre-left. He's so far removed from what so many on the left want. Sanders would have been politically a risk, too, but that's because he's the complete opposite of Biden. But he would have energised the youth and minorities into voting in greater numbers.
The Democrats are dealing in assumption. In 2016 they assumed that nobody would be crazy enough to vote for Trump. Even Trump's camp assumed that. They didn't make the effort and they lost. In 2020, they assumed Biden's connection to Obama would be enough to energise the aforemention electorate. But they've not bought it. The Democrats are a busted flush. They've lost one and are barely crawling over the winning line (maybe) against DONALD TRUMP. Donald fucking Trump. But nobody should be surprised that it's close and, win or not, they will definitely lose in 2024. They need to decide what they are as a party.
I'll never argue against the weakness of the democrats, but a 2x4 with a face sharpied onto it should have beaten not only trump, but all republicans, handily. It's been a decade of a republican controlled senate and what have they done apart from a deficit-exploding tax handout for billionaires and 70-odd attempts to repeal Obamacare, with no idea what they're going to replace it with? trump has never had above a 50% approval rating at any point in his presidency, he's spent most of it hovering around the 35% mark, but the popular vote only has a few percent difference.
So, ignoring the dems and their impotence, the republicans should have beaten themselves. Where is this extra 10 to 15 fucking per cent coming from? How is pretty much every senate republican safe? How did they gain 10 seats in the house? Aside from the trumpa loompas, who has been looking at this congress and thinking "yup. more of that!"? Nobody! Therefore there has to be more trumpa loompas lurking around than the 35% we've been assuming by his favorability polls.
And THAT, is why I'm a little shocked and very concerned. If the US has that many, we could too.
I loath the Republicans (both the party and it's supporters) and at this point will never vote for another one the rest of my life, and I have voted for some before. If I find a Democrat I consider too loathsome or reprehensible in the future I will just not vote out of principle as that as bad as I see the Republican party has gotten. For the sake of transparantcy, I consider myself an independent and have been one my entire adult life. I guess if a gun was held to my head and I was forced to label myself as part of a political group the closest definition would be as a progressive. I'm not somebody that likes the Democrats though, but I don't dislike them nearly as much as I dislike the the absolute batshit craziness the Republicans have become. The Dems have flaws, some deep, but as I'm not an adherent of either the logical fallacies of whataboutism or false equivalence I don't consider them "just as bad" like some out there do.
With that said I do agree with some of what you say here, and it's something that always infuriates me with the Democrats. They seem to be the grandmasters of bringing a knife to a gun fight. The Republicans (especially modern ones) will use just about any underhanded trick to retain power or get ahead if they think it's technically legal or if they just think they can get away with it. They will also mindlessly circle the wagons in a scary level of blind fanaticism. Republicans will stick to a single issue or sometimes a very small handful no matter how much nearly everything else is against their best interest or often even if it makes them completely hypocritical in a greater sense of things. They will live in a worldview that doesn't coincide with reality more often than the Dems, and I think the Dems too often forget all that and underestimate what they are up against. They are pretty much up against people with semi-cult levels of devotion that borders on religious ferver.
The Dems will have more numbers. Will have a cause that while sometimes can't be described as "just" at least isn't insane. They will usually use more science, analytical rational thinking, empirical and rational evidence. They are willing to at least be more self critical and call out themselves more than the Republicans. Overall they support more issues that on the surface should the in the best interest of the majority (and usually half-ass it as they give in the the rich elite or their own corporate masters)...and then when the time for battle comes they bring the damn knives the the gunfight and sit around bewildered as to why they lost or why they haven't pulled ahead a long time ago. Republicans are masters of tailoring their message to their supporters no matter how stupid or sometimes vile it might be because it will get their supporters to forget all the other large amount of stuff they do that isn't in their supporters best interest. Democrats on the other hand have pretty much distilled their message to their supporters as "So, hey guys, we aren't quite as bad as the other side. Do you think you can vote for us. It's not like you have much of a choice.", and have done that for over the past 40 years. That doesn't exactly rile up their base or other supporters. It's hard to get enthusiasm with that philosophy. They need to go all in on what their supporters and the majority of the people want, and not sell out to other interest while doing it.
Of course being up against gerrymandering, an outdated electoral collage system, and damn near cult doesn't help either.
The dems knife is called "principles" and the repubs gun is called "lack of principles". I'm not saying the dems are all angels, but they generally try to be consistent in their statements, and not break any laws, and do things that they think will help the most Americans, and one of their biggest flaws is that they still somehow imagine that republicans are also guided by those principles, despite the infinite supply of evidence to the contrary.