Russia says new ICBM can beat any system

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Man, you will argue from a standpoint of ignorance beyond belief!

The Kodiak facility is not an ICBM base. Thus deploying ABM's at that location violates the ABM treaty.
Who says it's not? Do you know they don't have such capability?
You keep dancing around and trying to find the smallest of circumstances or facts to support the huge hole you continue to dig for yourself!

Also, PAC-3 and THAAD are theoretically capable of destroying incoming ICBM's sufficiently to defend cities. Patriot was not - as shown in Desert Storm.
Patriot, as well as other "MIM" classification missile -- including PAC-3 and THAAD -- are capable of providing all sorts of "air defense."
This has always included intercepting even a high-speed re-entry vehicle.
And if you want to go that route, let's start talking about various Russian SA "air defense" systems!

They each have a range of over 100 miles.
And so do select, other MIM systems, as well as Russia SA "air defense" systems!
You see, you will argue a point from ignorance, and I will counter with information not from ignorance, and you'll keep dancing around like I didn't make them.
And then you'll slowly concede in your follow-ups with the exact same facts I presented, but you desputed, earlier.

The Sprint missile, which was classified under the ABM treaty as an ABM, had a range of only 25 miles. And only could shoot down an incoming missile by using an atomic warhead. Please tell me how Sprint is an ABM and THAAD and PAC-3 (which are far more effective) are not?
First off, Sprint not only pre-dated the ABM treaty, it was largely developed to force the Russians to the ABM negotiating table (just like Pershing II did for European weapons reductions).

Secondly, Sprint accelerated to Mach 10 -- faster than either -- in seconds, and could "throw" a payload into sub-orbit at its altitude 30+ miles in, again, a matter of seconds.
In other words, spirit's range for an interceptor mounted atop is far greater than 25 miles!
It would be considered a "sounding rocket" today, and that is what we do use in NMD, because their sheer, sub-orbital velocity capability.

But if you knew the first thing about engineering mechanics, you might think that one through!
It's like saying "cruise missiles" violate the ABM treaty as well -- let alone they are better for launching the Space Shuttle than its SRBs because of distance.
Man, you are argumentative from a standpoint of gross ignorance beyond belief!

BTW, if you had read my posts you would have seen that I agree that the proposed deployment of only 10 missiles is not a threat to Russia.
I did, but I don't see how that "upsets MAD" which is -- as you constantly refer to -- the "spirit" of the ABM treaty.

However, I still believe that this deployment represent a breach of the old ABM treaty. If in spirit if not in technical fact.
If the "spirit" of the ABM treaty was to prevent upsetting MAD -- mutually assured destruction -- then how does TMD do that?
Please explain this to me, as you keep dancing around every freak'n fact and specific detail I have continually pointed out, and never danced around myself.
 

McRocket

Banned
Look Prof Voluptuary. I am fully prepared to discuss this with you for as long as you wish - in pm's.

For 2 reasons.

One, we are now discussing ABM's. This is technically not what this thread is about. It is about Russia's 'new' ICBM's.
We have hyjacked a thread - and that is a Freeones no no.

and Two, BNF made it quite clear that he and the mods are not going to put up with this back and forth page after page of argueing. Especially if it's not about the thread's subject matter.
That is what pm's are for.
And I do not know about you, but I do not want to get banned.

So I invite you to continue this discussion in pm's.

But for the public record, because I know you usually refuse to debate me in pm's for some reason.
Sprint intercepted incoming warheads at less then 25 miles from launch at under 100,000 feet. 100,000 feet is less then 20 miles. They intercept area was far closer to their launch site then PAC-3 and THAAD - as the crow flies.

Now can we please continue this discussion in private - that is if you are not afraid that an ex-crackhead might actually know a few things that a supposed engineer doesn't about his own chosen field?

:D ;)
 
First I'm not an engineer, now I'm off-topic and we're going to get banned ...

One, we are now discussing ABM's. This is technically not what this thread is about. It is about Russia's 'new' ICBM's.
Huh? The whole rhetorical claim for the "need" for this new ICBM is because of that "evil" US ABM schtuff!

Or do I even need to quote the very first post ...
AFA said:
MOSCOW - Russia tested new missiles Tuesday that a Kremlin official boasted could penetrate any defense system, and President Vladimir Putin warned that U.S. plans for an anti-missile shield in Europe would turn the region into a "powder keg."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070530/...a_missile_test

So let's talk about it! What's so "evil" and "new and wrong" about NATO's proposed PAC-3 and THAAD upgrades?!
Let's get it out in the open, especially as people claim the US is "threating world stability" with a -- gasp -- pure, "air defense" interceptor capability!
Let's compare that to "spirit" of the ABM treaty and upsetting the "balance" of MAD.

Let's talk about how the "evil" US actions and wishes to place NATO units in Eastern Europe has caused Russia to develop its new, offensive ICBM to counter it.
As if their thousands of nuclear weapons weren't enough for those 10 interceptors! ;)
Sorry, I might be melodramatic at times, and even stupid (I constantly agree my IQ isn't above 100, if 100 at all), but I don't see it. :)

Or how about we talk about why you -- only now -- bring this up ...
Oh please ProfV, we're off-topic, let's stop before we get banned.
Now that I've (yet again) obliterated your entire platform!

I don't know what you're up to, but regardless of what it was, I provided consistent, sound, technical information here -- especially when you kept going, "but, but, but" and I kept saying "because, because, because."
Now if you have more "but, but, but" responses, I'm available to educate yourself, and continue to provide sound, technical information on this subject.
I won't even use the word "ignorant" any more, because I think it's well established in this case.

Especially since you've moved on to -- yet again -- questioning if I'm even an engineer.
I like to think my answers in this thread, among others, prove that far more than any credentials could! ;)
Especially when I get the same old, "but, but, but" comments, responses and countless other things, and I merely respond, "because, because, because" with sound, technical information.

But you go right ahead and question -- and I'll keep saying, "feel free to assume what you want."
But that still does not discredit when you find that what I say, is indeed, technical fact upon your own research!
Regardless if I'm actually an engineer or not, whether I worked for NASA or BMDO contractors or not, or anything else I've claimed that may or may not be true!. ;)

The thing about credentials is that someone else always has more and better ones.
God I would love it if a fellow, former BMDO contract engineer would join us!
Especially someone who is "more up to date" than I, as I've been "outta the game" for awhile now myself.

and Two, BNF made it quite clear that he and the mods are not going to put up with this back and forth page after page of argueing.
I have no problem if the mods ban us, it's totally fine with me!
In fact, it's good to give the board a reprieve from both of us on a regular basis.
I'm all for it, and I'm sure I can find a number of members who agree (like a great majority).

Especially if it's not about the thread's subject matter.
That is what pm's are for.
PM's are for your abuse, that's one thing I've learned from yourself.
With exception to my complaints of your continued ignorance and backtracking, I have kept the anti-missile defense aspects in mind and kept them as part of my continual responses.

And I do not know about you, but I do not want to get banned.
So I invite you to continue this discussion in pm's.
No. Unless you have anything remotely and technically accurate to contribute in a techncial fashion, I would you suggestion you concede.
At least before you follow up with yet another dozen-plus posts where you basically just re-state what I've already said, but you disagreed with prior.

It's a violation of the ABM treaty.
Oh, it's not a violation of the ABM treaty, but I think it's still a violation.
Oh, it's a violation of the spirit of the ABM treaty.
Oh, but they aren't there to shoot down airplanes in Alaska (which is in Eastern Europe? Where are we talking about?).

But for the public record, because I know you usually refuse to debate me in pm's for some reason.
After the 6th time in a day, no.
In fact, you previously complained about me PM'ing you 6 times over 24 hours.
What you failed to mention is that you PM'ed me more than 6 times in those 24 hours, prompting every single one of my responses with 2 of yours!

At this point, you're trying to "win public favor" or whatever you wish with the thread.
What you said here could have been said in a PM, but you chose not to, because you're publicly grandstanding.
The concept of ABMs are on-topic and unless you have anything technical to say on the subject at this point, I'd resign from the discussion.

Sprint intercepted incoming warheads at less then 25 miles from launch at under 100,000 feet. 100,000 feet is less then 20 miles. They intercept area was far closer to their launch site then PAC-3 and THAAD - as the crow flies.
And cruise missiles fly even farther.
But cruise missiles don't go 25 miles in 5 seconds, breaking Mach 10, and neither do PAC-3 or THAAD.
I can't believe you're still arguing this point.

It's like the girl in my high school who screamed, "the Space Shuttle is going to crash!"
Why? Because the Space Shuttle wasn't "going straight up into space" as she responded.
Sigh, engineering mechanics -- no place for ... well, ya'know (broken record)

PM me if you wish, although don't expect any responses if I don't feel like going down the same "but, but, but - because, because, because - backtrack, backtrack, backtrack" routine with you.
Discuss your "knowledge" here (or whatever you find in Wikipedia) if you wish, or not.
 
Entertainment ...

Evening bodie54...sorry I got carried away.
:hatsoff:
It's entertaining to say the least.

Listen, there's nothing "benign" about NATO and its capabilities, including new upgrades, "right next door" to Russia.
And I'm sure the continued "engagement" with Eastern Europe -- let alone the Ukraine -- expanding NATO membership is really getting to them.
I'm the first to admit that, the Russians don't like it, and I can understand their viewpoints.

But what they are saying just defies logic -- and not just what I consider logic -- but virtually everyone in NATO. ;)
"So the US is putting a new SAM site with 10 interceptors in our new ally in Eastern Europe, and you're going to aim your new, upgraded nukes at us again in response?
This isn't helping your image, I don't see the justification at all."

That's pretty much been the unilateral response from every NATO nation at this point -- many very publicly (even those most critical of the US).
 

McRocket

Banned
Re: First I'm not an engineer, now I'm off-topic and we're going to get banned ...

This was BNF's post:

'I think PMing is a good idea.


These endless round and round political discussions are too much.

This is the one public warning - get out of hand, attack a member, troll a member and you will be banned, permanently.

It's simply more reading, more reporting, more work for less of the board well being, than we care to do anymore.'



I could be wrong. But we are doing could be qualified as what he does not want.
And I do not wish to knowingly do something that he and the other mods do not want to have to deal with.
I 'run' 2 other boards (one little and one VERY little) and I know that if I had to wade through miles of political arguing it would get on my nerves too.


I have no problem if the mods ban us, it's totally fine with me!
Well, maybe you want it. But I do not.

At this point, you're trying to "win public favor" or whatever you wish with the thread.
What you said here could have been said in a PM, but you chose not to, because you're publicly grandstanding.
The concept of ABMs are on-topic and unless you have anything technical to say on the subject at this point, I'd resign from the discussion.
Win public favour? I highly doubt that anyone on here would accuse me of trying to make friends or trying to make everyone like me.
Win public favour? For what insane purpose would that be for?
I think you are reading WAY too much into things.
But I do not doubt for a second that it is yours. Clearly one of the reasons you come on here is to try and make yourself feel more important. Which is fine, but not to do it at others expense.

Why I typed it in public is....

PM me if you wish, although don't expect any responses if I don't feel like going down the same "but, but, but - because, because, because - backtrack, backtrack, backtrack" routine with you.
Discuss your "knowledge" here (or whatever you find in Wikipedia) if you wish, or not.
Because I strongly suspected that you would refuse my offer - and I was right, apparently. And since you rarely even acknowledge my pm's, I was not even sure if you would get it.
But this public debate should end between us, for the reasons I mentioned before.

But don't worry. As long as you continue to deride, insult and condescend to the members of this board I will (mods and my health willing) be there to try and convince you of the error of your ways.

The only tough part is to do it and not get banned.

:)
 
McRocket and Prof Voluptuary, it's time for the two of you to begin using PMs. The endless back-and-forth personal arguments are best kept between the two of you, as you are both well aware of. It's just not in the best interest of the board to see what's been going on in this thread recently. It's too much and it's too personal.
 
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McRocket

Banned
For the record. According to GlobalSecurity.org.

The Americans have their ICBM's stationed at 3 sites only. All within the lower 48 states:

Francis E. Warren Air Force Base near Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Malmstrom Air Force Base at Great Falls International Airport, Montana.

Minot AFB, North Dakota.
 
:rofl: Prof, I swear, sometimes talking to you is like talking to a wall. Anyway, thanx for a detailed description of the system. You may not be the most pleasant man on the board at times, but you are certainly one of the most interesting. :)

Al right, seeing that mods are becoming aggravated I'll try to keep this to a minimum.

U.S. in this instance acts as O.J. Simpson: it gets away on a technicality. Here is how it looks across the pond: U.S., with its commitments in Iraq, slowly brewing hostilities with Iran and massive budget deficit starts to finance the build up of NATO presence near Russian borders. JUST BEFORE THE BLOODY ELECTION YEAR IN RUSSIA


Do you realise that the U.S. is willingly giving fodder to our radicals at home? Do you honestly expect the Russian government to exlain all these technicalities to our population or do you simply think that we will post a link to Freeones board wherever we can?

You still haven't given me a valid reason WHY the U.S. needs it at this time at least. At least, we are being very honest about our response. So why does Europe need a new anti-air system? To most Russians it looks like it is anticipating a Russian strike.

As far as rogue nations are concerned, well, there are only two at the moment: North Korea and Iran. If they choose to attack Europe they will have to deliver the payload via our territory. I highly doubt that anyone within Russia would allow that. If anything we will be very cynical about this and will simply interpret this as an assault and will obliterate these states on our own, without European involvement.

I hear your argument about this being merely an upgrade, but its not like you are changing a car or a mobile phone. Thats how the arms race starts in the first place.

As far as our dislike of NATO is concerned, we pretty much see it as the same problem as EU at the moment. You have probably heard about Poland vetoing the Russo-European Energy talks. Simply because we have banned the import of their meat. The validity of that ban aside, Russians are pretty concerned how only one member within such an organisation can actively promote an anti-Russian policy. Same with NATO.

Furthermore, its not just the unwillingness to be a US crony (or cronie) that makes us unwilling to cooperate with NATO. Its not just pride. YOU DO NOT SHARE A BORDER WITH IRAN OR CHINA. We do. We have to keep a balance between US and other countries. If we choose an actively pro-US policy we automatically spoil our relations with these countries. And we have enough trouble keeping the Chinese out of our Far East as it is.

Anyways, enough of that. I am extremely pleased to see so many Americans and Europeans actually seeing our point of view. I have a newfound respect for the intelligence of many members of this board.

McRocket, :hatsoff: thanks, Brother :wave:
 

McRocket

Banned
It is so cool that a Russian is in this discussion.

I have done some reading on this and I realize that Prof Voluptuary is right in that the THAAD systems are not at present designed to shoot down ICBM's. However, according to this Wikipedia article:
'THAAD was designed to hit Scuds and similar weapons, but has a limited capability against ICBMs.'

this from:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/THAAD

I was in error and I regret that I was wrong, even though it seems THAAD does have a limited ICBM shoot down capability. It is clearly not what it is designed for as Prof Voluptuary stated all along.

However there is this:

'On 16 February 2005 Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, testified that "We judge Iran will have the technical capability to develop an ICBM by 2015. It is not clear whether Iran has decided to field such a missile." '

This is located at:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/shahab-6.htm 2'nd paragraph from the bottom of the page.

That means that Iran could deploy ICBM's 6 years after American deployment of THAAD in Europe. And assuming THAAD is relatively ineffective against ICBM's, then the point of deploying the system there is rather suspect.

Also, according to the following GlobalSecurity.org report:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/td-2.htm

North Korea is close to or may already have a working Taep'o-dong 2 ICBM.

In addition there is this report:

'Reports: North Korean Taep’o-dong Exploded 1.5 km from Launch Site
July 30, 2006 :: Reuters :: News

U.S. military sources report today that the Taep’o-dong 2 long-range ballistic missile test fired by North Korea on July 5 exploded in midair within some 1.5 kilometers of its launch site. The new information contradicts earlier claims by the Japanese government, which had estimated that the Taep’o-dong 2 had reached the Sea of Japan 400-600 km away from the Musudanri missile base in North Hamgyong Province. (Article, Link) '

located at:

http://www.missilethreat.com/archives/id.59,page.3/subject_detail.asp

Which confirms that North Korea is already testing a version of this missile.


And since Iran's ICBM (Shahab-6) is a direct development of North Korea's Taep'o-dong 2. Then it is logical to assume that once the latter comes on line - the former cannot be too far behind.

Then it is possible that the North Koreans will have a working ICBM in operation by the time of the US THAAD deployment in Europe. And, by America's own admittance, Iran could have one 6 years later - if not sooner.

So this deployment to stop the rogue nations of Iran and North Korea from launching strikes on Europe looks at the very least, suspect; if as stated, the THAAD system is not capable of shooting down ICBM's.

At least, that is how I see it.
 
To the Professor who has my quotes mixed up with niptuck let me say that I think I do know History dude.We just obviously think the lessons and conclusions are different from each other.And that it is fine, that is what debate is about.You are obviously interested in the technical side of these things while I have always found the political implications to be more significant.You say that I am wrong to say the system being installed in Poland is aimed at the Russians and that it is just a defensive system aimed at no one in particular.Well obviously the Russians don't see it that way and based on HISTORY (i.e. Poland being carved up by the Germans and Russians several times in History) anything defensive in Poland very likely would involve that history.So since the Russians are the ones that have the capability that this system seems to try to counter in the region the notion that it is aimed at them is hard to ignore.These things are not depolyed with no threat in mind.Finally back to the ABM treaty,it is dead!George W withdrew from it in 2001 as shown by the link below.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Ballistic_Missile_Treaty
 

McRocket

Banned
I will add this - as the title of this thread states.

I sincerely hope that this new Russian ICBM can beat any system.

Just as I hope America currently possesses an ICBM that can beat any system designed to stop it.

I think MAD is extremely important to maintain.


Also. There seems to be some debate as to whether these new American anti-missile systems can (or can with some changes) take down ICBM's.
I think their capabilities need to be ascertained insofar as whether they are capable of downing ICBM's or not. I think this is imperative in stopping a new ICBM Cold War from developing. For if I were the Russians, I would not feel terribly secure knowing that these new missiles could possibly take down my ICBM's.
Now yes, they only propose to deploy ten of them. But since there is no longer an ABM treaty, America is under no obligation to keep that number at 10. They could up it to 200 at any time (assuming they had that many missiles) without notifying the Russians. And considering Iran currently has at least 25 missiles (and possibly as many as 100 - according to this http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/missile.htm) that could strike Europe now. Should Iran's posture grow more 'menacing', I think America would be under some pressure to up the number of missiles based at this site.

Thusly, I think it is very important that:

a) This site not go into operation until their can be a satisfactory conclusion as to whether these missiles can indeed shoot down ICBM's.
and b) A new ABM treaty should be drawn up and ratified by both Russia and the United States - and possibly other countries.

I am not typing that I think this will happen. But I think it should.

And quite frankly, I assume that the Russians will be very hard to persuade that THAAD and/or PAC-3 systems missiles are NOT capable of downing ICBM's. How can you prove something cannot do something? You can only prove what it can do.
This being the case, I believe their should be an agreement signed between America and Russia in regards specifically to this site (assuming a formal ABM treaty cannot be agreed to). This agreement would limit the number of missiles and would allow the Russians frequent inspections of the facility to confirm this.
I realize America has offered this. But I want it in writing, not just verbal. With the terms strictly defined.

I don't like or trust Putin. But I do not blame him for taking the action that he has in regards to targeting Europe again - under the circumstances.

Overall, I think this deployment by the United States is ill advised, desablizing for above any potential military benefits that it offers.
 

georges

Moderator
Staff member
I kinda agree with your post mcrocket.
 
i think MAD as a strategy only applies when 2 discrete enemies are involved, like india and pakistan, or the former soviet bloc and nato. the rest of eurasia is more complex now. ProfVoluptuary has been saying that this system is more about the sensors than the anti-missiles. i mostly come here for the naked ladies, so to comment on world affairs and military hardware etc would just be a different kind of masturbation. but i read this and it applies and is interesting so here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/07/world/europe/07cnd-Russia.html?hp
 

L3ggy

Special Operations FOX-HOUND
What do they mean with that an ICBM can beat any system???
 
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