NFL '10/'11 Season Thread.

Why did you ever think I meant statistics in a vacuum when I plainly stated that they needed to be tempered with common sense and observations? I wasn't talking about people bending them to show with they want, but people that know what they are doing and doing them as precisely as they can to make the statistics relate to the true reality. In that sense they blow anecdotal observation out of the water, and where shayd got them are the best and most knowledgeable at when it comes to football statistics. Most of the time when it comes to the statistical analysis that I mentioned people don’t like it is because it doesn’t correspond to what they want to believe so it’s easier to just write them off than for people to consider deeply held beliefs might be wrong. People also don't like finding out or admitting their gut feelings about something where wrong.

You have it exactly wrong. I'm not really going beat this too much more as you're obviously reading into what you think I'm saying as opposed to the case I've actually made.

In the context of this discussion the case was suggested on the basis of some stats that Miami has been better without Welker. WHAT FUCKING IDIOT BELIEVES THAT NO MATTER WHAT GOOFY STATS SOMEONE PULLS OUT OF THEIR ASS?? In just glancing at the corresponding stats it seemed they were glommed to create an illusion not borne out by reality. Miami was not better without Welker especially considering what Welker has done since.

You see, the problem isn't with stats as much as it is their susceptibility to shills exploiting them to gin up and support some nonsensical perspective.

Just like I said before, there was some dopey GOPer shill trying to carry water for GWB on Iraq claiming because of some statistic that Baghdad was 'safer' than DC. What idiot not carrying water would buy that?

In the college football thread someone cited Auburn's defense being 'worse' than Oregon's. By some numerical stat comparison they may appear to be but it's hard to know practically since Auburn's defensive ranking is based on a tougher schedule among other things. So in this case Auburn being ranked 54 (or whatever) is just a number.

Stats represent trends...that is useful information in some circumstances but in others they're just numbers. I watched a guy who shoots FTs at 91% for the Knicks miss 3 straight FTs against the Celtics last night. At that point in the game...in the middle of the game..with nothing on the line nor a strategy for fouling, etc. ...91 pct. was just another number.
 
Man, the Monday night game is gonna be epic at TCF. That's the best way to watch football, when it's truly shitty out. It's going to only be in the teens and it will likely be snowing, they've been reporting.

And for the love of Christ, could they get rid of the HHH dome? What a mess of a facility. I have to say though, we absolutely got trashed with a huge blizzard. I got stuck twice in that mess (helped out at least three cars who got stuck).

And lastly, does anyone know what's going on with the 'Queens quarterback situation? It just doesn't make any sense, and as far as I know Fav-ray will not be starting.
 
I honestly dont think farve will play again now that his streak as ended he will nurse his shoulder until the end of the season where he will retire for good.
i seen Rodgers is out for the packers that is a huge blow but the i bet the bear fans are happy
 
Why did you ever think I meant statistics in a vacuum when I plainly stated that they needed to be tempered with common sense and observations? I wasn't talking about people bending them to show with they want, but people that know what they are doing and doing them as precisely as they can to make the statistics relate to the true reality. In that sense they blow anecdotal observation out of the water, and where shayd got them are the best and most knowledgeable at when it comes to football statistics. Most of the time when it comes to the statistical analysis that I mentioned people don’t like it is because it doesn’t correspond to what they want to believe so it’s easier to just write them off than for people to consider deeply held beliefs might be wrong. People also don't like finding out or admitting their gut feelings about something where wrong.





What world are you living in? Before this year almost everybody thought Vick was a very poor quarterback, (was he was indeed very horrible) whether they believed in stats or not. To go back and think people within the game with exception of a few here or there thought he was good anyway is just very revisionist history. Giving the small sample size of good games he has this year he might very well still be bad and regress.



Is there any logical reason or empirical basis for why you believe this or are you just going with Elway just because? I’m curious.



Actually people that do stats usually take those things into account, more than the people that just observe the game, and very often even try to incorporate that into any analytical system they have. As an example, that's why most stat people believed Revis was the real defensive player of the year last year instead of Woodson and even thought Woodson was below Asomugha because of one of the very reasons you stated, which is they never threw at him. Woodson got some turnovers which statistics show are more fungible non as easily repeatable actions, but that's what casual anecdotal observers always remember no matter how much it does or does not contribute to winning. So Woodson was not only not the best defensive player last year he wasn't even the best or second best player at his own position.

You complain about how those stats don't take things into account but ironically it's usually the stat analysis people that know more about that and realize things like that better than maybe everybody else because they can think of things more objectively and can even realize what their stats show. They also are the most likely to realize that some people with high stats have them either because they or the rest of the team is not good or as a by product of a system.

Don't worry too much D-Rock, bud, we "stat nerds" wouldn't understand. We're too busy trying to wow a porn board with "idiotic" statistics, and their eyes tell them more than any statistic ever could. :rolleyes:
 
i agree Stdiva i thought they would make the playoffs this year by winning there Divison
 
The sad fact is that the 49ers where being hyped as playoff contenders with a mess of a qb suspect wideouts and db's who can't cover. i thought they where another year away but really it might be 2.

red001
 
The sad fact is that the 49ers where being hyped as playoff contenders with a mess of a qb suspect wideouts and db's who can't cover. i thought they where another year away but really it might be 2.

red001

Although San Diego is a better overall team, they stumbled out of the gate just like San Fran..

What's hampered San Fran from stay on track in recovering like San Diego is a rash of some pretty devastating and untimely injuries. Gore's gone, Smith has been down, etc.

If they make it to the playoffs they will have overcome some pretty tough road blocks albeit in a bad division.
 
This getting out of hand SD can start shitty and end up in the playoffs. IF SD ever wants to win a Super Bowl they need to start winning at the beginning of the season and not towards the middle or the end.
 
This getting out of hand SD can start shitty and end up in the playoffs. IF SD ever wants to win a Super Bowl they need to start winning at the beginning of the season and not towards the middle or the end.

:1orglaugh Well, if you have to choose between winning in the beginning or winning in the end...

BTW, I get your point...they have to be more consistent throughout a season.
 
I honestly dont think farve will play again now that his streak as ended he will nurse his shoulder until the end of the season where he will retire for good.
i seen Rodgers is out for the packers that is a huge blow but the i bet the bear fans are happy

Yes we are very happy as I just learned Matt Flynn is starting for the Packers against the Patriots. No way are the Packers winning this one, the Bears just need to win against Minnesota and they're division champs.:clap:
 
SanFran is a bad team Alex Smith is not a winning qb. Frank Gore was their untill 2 weeks ago. and they had no backup quaterback in case fragile Alex got hurt. that's bad team make up as Alex has finished 1 season in his career.

red001
 
It's been a good week.

Chiefs (8 - 4); Packers (8 - 4); Steelers (9 - 3); Patriots (*on their way to 10 - 2); that's 4 of my 5 favorite teams, minus the 49ers, gunning for the playoffs. Sam Bradford is hunting for the playoffs in his first season. With Martz long gone, I can now follow the Rams once more and have been all year. Chargers got manhandled by the Raiders and the Bears are looking strong. My two favorite rivalries have HUGE games coming up possibly...

What was up with the Buccaneers decision to battle for top spot in their long known loser jerseys?!? What a bone-headed decision. :rolleyes:

Gotta admit. I am getting nervous as hell. I know the Steelers and Patriots will be going to the dance but my fave two teams.... :dunno:

In both the cases of the Chiefs and the Packers I am really quite happy with my boys. They are getting good to better, in the Chiefs case I hope Scott Pioli has another good off-season coming up. This season is somewhat beyond expectations anyhow regardless of playing a soft NFC West this year. The Packers played injured all season... my boy Aaron Rodgers could develop into the Packer legend, Clay Matthews is a freak on D, love it.
 

Ace Bandage

The one and only.
Orton has thrown for 3,600 yards, 20 TD, and only 9 INT. He's not the fucking problem. Fix your 28th ranked defense and find a decent head coach.

When Tebow fails miserably (and he will), I'll be one of the many saying "I told you so."

I personally think Orton is a great QB and doesn't get the respect he deserves. Much better than Cutler IMO.

However, the Broncos are 3-10 and are paying big bucks for a QB to sit on the bench. If Tebow plays great for the next few games (which I highly doubt), and flashes signs that he can be a stating QB in the league, Orton could be good trade bate to fix that awful defense.
 

John_8581

FreeOnes Lifetime Member
As a Colts fan here, we'll know if they'll be going to the playoffs. They have to beat Jacksonville soundly tomorrow in Indianapolis. Peyton Manning gets back Austin Collie, allowing Reggie Wayne to maybe catch some passes? Wayne's been double covered in a lot of games. Dallas Clark being out has hurt them the whole season. Peyton has to step up and have a huge game.
 
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