British Sailors in Iranian hands ...

[dick van cock]

Couple of interesting articles on StrategyPage.com:

The Iranian Family Feud and the British Hostages
Iran: Who's Not In Charge

both hint that internal conflicts within Iran make this situation much more complicated. If we don't know who is really in charge over there, it makes any negotiation difficult. Civil war is a serious possibility.
From first article:

It is true that the Iranian state is marked by an erratic hodgepodge of responsibilities and conflicting interests. But it still holds true that the most liberal factions inside the political system are people like the complacent ex-president Khatami and elder statesman Rafsandjani. These are the best we can root for in any Persian power struggle.

I cannot judge how likely a civil war is (I doubt it, maybe a 10 % chance for the next five years), but any group willing to cooperate with our (the West's) interests lacks the resources to get a foot in the door soon - whether peacefully or violently.

There is a growing unrest brewing among the intelligentsia - students, journalists, lawyers, etc. - but their opposition against the ruling class is resticted to small gestures (blue jeans, loose headscarfs, any little refuge of hedonism). They are unable to take share in the political process unless the pressure builds so much -- like it did against the Shah in 1979 -- that it cannot be contained under the lid any longer.

But since the Revolutionary Guards brutally crushed humble student uprings several years ago, any organized protest has faded. The effect of the Nobel Peace Prize for Shirin Ebadi fizzled (due to the disrespect Iranian media paid her). Where shall the momentum come from?

I sense only bleak prospects for Iran. And with the current leadership these prospects emanate outwards - probably with repercussions for a civil war (so it should happen). The Shia militias in Iraq acquired a lot of savvy in warfare recently. They would step into any inner Iranian conflict to support their sponsors and most likely swing the outcome of the battle.

And after all: Even if we look with horror at the holocaust denying antiques of President Ahmadinejad, there is good evidence that he is just a puppet for the mullahs. The clerical elite around Khamenei appears to be in charge and just gives itself a populist face with the modestly religious but rhetorically adept Ahmadinejad. He is just a decoy! Turn your eyes to Ghom! That's where the puppetmasters rejoice in religious fervor with anti-Zionist, anti-Western agendas on their mind.

I hope I'm wrong...

 

[Boobman!]

Where the hells Maggie thatcher when ya need her she would have shown them !!

 

[Monkey_28]

Good news iran has relaesed the 15 britains

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6525905.stm

 

[Boobman!]

Thank god for that.

I dont think we have heard the last of it though.

 

[Monkey_28]

Nor do i

 

[HeartBroker]

Agreed, wait until the nasty little Rosie spews again!

 

[meesterperfect]

"Little" Rosie????
I suppose your just speaking about her intelligence level.

 

[Misery]

That POS Rosie will attribute the release to Pelosi's trip to Syria.

 

[The Captain]

They probably let them go out of fear that the U.S. Aircraft Carriers in the Gulf may be ordered to strike.

Thank goodness they are being released.

 

[blakey]

Well glad to see those guys & gal released

To be honest the Iranians have kinda pulled the rug from under everyones feet by releasing the troops as a positive gesture in time for, and in celebration of, an Islamic festival and Easter

Although i'm not a fan of the Iranian regime i reckon this is a big propaganda and public relations coup for them -

it might not be seen in a very positive light in the UK & US but the Iranians can say to smaller countries round the world that they were trying to defend their boarders / rights, that they treated the prisoners well (apparently, we haven't heard the prisoners uncensored opinions yet) and they were then magnanimous enough to release the prisoners

this could play well with other UN countries ( including non-permanent members of the security council ), other members of the Islamic world and also many other smaller / poorer countries around the world
:2 cents:

 

[dave_rhino]

Gift to Britain

Ahmadinejad said he had pardoned the sailors as a gift to the British people and to mark the birthday of Islam's Prophet Muhammed and Easter.

"On the occasion of the birthday of the great prophet (Muhammad) ... and for the occasion of the passing of Christ, I say the Islamic Republic government and the Iranian people -- with all powers and legal right to put the soldiers on trial -- forgave those 15," he said, referring to the Muslim prophet's birthday last Saturday and Easter, next Sunday.

"This pardon is a gift to the British people," he said.

I'm not sure what to think of this...

 

[georges]

Perhaps Ahmadinejhad is preparing something. You shouldn't trust him.

 

[dick van cock]

Perhaps Ahmadinejhad is preparing something. You shouldn't trust him.

It's definitely more complicated than that, but Ahmadinejad is trying to spin the release as a goodwîll gesture. F**k him!
The soldiers have apparently been abducted from Iraqî seas and now he's doing us a favor by ending their illegal custody? Ridiculous!

High time to send Prescott to Tehran:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRQDnGTcc4A

 

[blakey]

Quality link dick, but perhaps it should go in the "pound for pound" thread

http://board.freeones.com/showthread.php?t=127066&page=3&highlight=pound+for

 

[vicmic]

15 Sailors....14 men 1 woman......Guess who was reading the map?????

 

[georges]

It's definitely more complicated than that, but Ahmadinejad is trying to spin the release as a goodwîll gesture. F**k him!
The soldiers have apparently been abducted from Iraqî seas and now he's doing us a favor by ending their illegal custody? Ridiculous!

High time to send Prescott to Tehran:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRQDnGTcc4A

There is a way of making Ahmadinejhad quiet.
Using f22 stealth fighters and northrop b2 stealth bombers and make them launch laser guided bombs on Iran's nuclear plants and air as well as naval bases.

A friend me made a while ago this photoshop, I am posting it http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v257/georges2/irandestruction.jpg I hope that none will be offended. I will be honest with you I hate Ahmadinejad as much as I hate Bachar El Hassad, the Hamas, the FPLP, the Hezbollah, the Fatah and also Colonel Muhamar Khadafi. What is the worse with Ahmadinejad is that he is a radical islamist. That is why wrecking the shit out of his military and nuclear plants is necessary.

 

[Philbert]

Iran isn't a unigovernment, it's got a lot of shit internally going on.
If we had started a war, that would be just fine for Ahmadinejhad, the bad inflation and discontent among many younger Iranians would have been pushed aside as the result of war; the US isn't in a position to get busy on another front or two, neither is the UK.
No easy soulution there; until we are in a position to slam some selected targets we need to let Iran implode as long as we can, ala the Soviet DisUnion.
The trick is to know when, and how much.
The Brit pussy soldiers shamed every soldier ever captured and held prisoner, and the military boys on the board know what I mean. There will be some backlash now they are free and unmarked back home.
Screaming Islamic crowds will believe what they are told whether it happened or not, no need to worry about how it really went down.

 

[georges]

Iran isn't a unigovernment, it's got a lot of shit internally going on.
If we had started a war, that would be just fine for Ahmadinejhad, the bad inflation and discontent among many younger Iranians would have been pushed aside as the result of war; the US isn't in a position to get busy on another front or two, neither is the UK.
No easy soulution there; until we are in a position to slam some selected targets we need to let Iran implode as long as we can, ala the Soviet DisUnion.
The trick is to know when, and how much.
The Brit pussy soldiers shamed every soldier ever captured and held prisoner, and the military boys on the board know what I mean. There will be some backlash now they are free and unmarked back home.
Screaming Islamic crowds will believe what they are told whether it happened or not, no need to worry about how it really went down.

Iran was already shit since 1979 so you can't expect of it to be better. You can make war on Iran by using stealth technology only: f22 + b2 + paveway or tomahawk or agm 154 or have nap missiles launched on nuclear plants and naval as well as air bases would be fatal to Iran. If you use planes like the f15e strike eagle or the f16 block 52c-d or even f16 block 60, you will be slaughtered. Not to mention that Iran still has Tomcats and has a stock of aim 54 phoenix missiles.
Iranians have the latest AS 400 missiles that Putin sold them.
The captured soldiers looked more like innocent teenagers than real soldiers. If it were the sas they would have killed the Iranians who would have tried to capture them. I bet these so called soldiers have never fired a gun or an m2.
Islamic crowds are basically terrorists, precision strikes with
stealth fighters is the only way to make Iran calm down.

 

[The Captain]

I agree with Georges. We need to beat Down Ahmadinejhad's ego a little bit.

 

[blakey]

The Brit pussy soldiers shamed every soldier ever captured and held prisoner, and the military boys on the board know what I mean. There will be some backlash now they are free and unmarked back home.

I think that's a bit harsh. I guess from this response Philbert, that you are saying that you used to be in the military.

At the end of the day it is very easy for members of this board to make quick judgements on the actions of others when they have not been in the same situation themselves

I wouldn't say those Brit troops have particularly covered themselves in glory but - having heard more explanations since their return ( eg mock executions, solitary confinement (particularly of the female prisoner) etc ) i think it's easier to understand their actions
- the controversy in the UK now is at the government's decision to allow them, contrary to standard British military rules, to sell their stories to the press

Last point is kinda connected to my first - again its easy to advocate war against Iran on here - are those doing that currently in the military - i doubt it

the thing with iran ( and other muslim countries in that neck of the woods ) is that the have far younger ( relatively speaking ) population than countries in the west, and one that is growing faster

yes - we have superiority in technology and armnaments ( at the moment) but the countries that it appears ( to me ) some members consider to be their "enemies" have younger and larger populations - so if any initial western attack snowballed into a regional or global war then US, UK or whoever else might be involved would be at a disadvantage in regard to raising enough troops
( although some might argue that it is unlikely US will ever be involved in that type of war utilising massive amounts of infantry again )


(remember Nazi Germany was technologically far superior to Soviet Russia, but the size of that country and its seemingly endless natural resourcesn eg men eventually defeated adolph - remember Stalingrad )
( or Vietnam )
:2 cents: