I don't suppose you wonder why Unemployment rate hasn't changed at all with that graph your showing ?
or maybe this :
The council reports that, using “mainstream estimates of economic multipliers for the effects of fiscal stimulus” (which it describes as a “natural way to estimate the effects of” the legislation), the “stimulus” has added or saved just under 2.4 million jobs — whether private or public — at a cost (to date) of $666 billion. That’s a cost to taxpayers of $278,000 per job.
In other words, the government could simply have cut a $100,000 check to everyone whose employment was allegedly made possible by the “stimulus,” and taxpayers would have come out $427 billion ahead.
I suppose that makes sense to you , as well ? I hate to break this to you .... but the job stimulus bill was an epic fail .... the only numbers that show results are skewed and aren't considering all the factors involved.
What you're missing is that the purpose of the stimulus was not JUST job creation. The primary goal was to "reflate" the economy. But even then, it wouldn't be correct to simply say that "each .1 increase in GDP cost $X billion." Fiscal policy assessments,
whether you agree with a particular policy or not, simply do not work that way. It would be like saying,
"rather than spend a trillion dollars in Iraq, why didn't we just give every Iraqi a check for $500K?" That would make no sense either, since it would have nothing to do with why we *claimed* to be there.
I agree that there was a good deal of waste and fluff in the broad stimulus package. And I didn't agree with many of the measures within it. But as I hear people, who claim to be "fiscal conservatives", argue against the very concept of the stimulus, they seem to forget (or conveniently ignore) that roughly 1/3 of the stimulus consisted of tax cuts (refunds, rebates, credits, accelerated depreciation, etc.). What they also seem to not realize is that the previous recession was more demand side based. It was one where the danger was deflation. The recessions of the early 80's were more supply side based. There was stagnant growth. But the over-riding danger was inflation. But recessions are not "pure plays" any more than most other things are. But one would typically address the larger contributing factor: if your big toe aches, but your arm is bleeding profusely... I'd suggest getting that arm taken care of first... but that's just me. So while a reliance on supply side theory seemed appropriate (and rather effective) in the 80's, having the majority of a fiscal stimulus package applied to things other than tax policy seemed more appropriate in the recession of 2007-09. If you have issues on the supply side of the equation, then you deal with the supply side. But if you have issues on the demand side of the equation, it would be rather foolish to devote most of your fiscal stimulus to the supply side... yet, that's what some seem to believe should have happened - or they believe that doing nothing was what the Econ gods on Mount Olympus wanted, and the recession would have (somehow, some way) just cured itself in 3-6 months. I call that the Jehovah's Witnesses approach to macroeconomics:
"just do nothing, let it be and if we don't die, we'll be stronger."
Anyway, in a recession/near depression (especially demand based with creeping disinflation/approaching deflation), some amount of government spending is necessary. Why? Well, if you know how GDP is actually calculated, then that is apparent. GDP = C + I + G + (X-M). The trick is to not depend on increased G for too long. People act like it's voodoo or something. While the practical implementation is based on various theories, it's math... not magic. So people need to stop pretending that if C (the largest contributor) is decreasing, I is decreasing/frozen and X-M remains static, that somehow a decrease in G will still provide for a larger Y (GDP). Whether someone wants to be a liberal, a conservative or a member of the John Birch Society, the laws of mathematics do not bend - they're the same for everybody.
But people are free to believe whatever they choose, whether it's factually accurate or not. I just had a discussion with someone on another board who is a Reagan worshiper. He claimed that "
Reagan whipped inflation using supply side economics." Funny, I don't remember it that way at all (probably because it didn't happen). I was in school then and the university I attended taught the conservative branch of fiscal economic theory (supply side economics). But inflation is addressed by using
monetary policy. Fiscal policy might
affect inflation longer term, but it is addressed by use of the various
monetary policy tools. And that function is handled by the Fed - not the President or Congress. That was true in the 1930's and it's still true today. The President, no matter who it is, has nothing to do with monetary policy (other than nominating the Fed Chairman to be voted on by Congress). But people still make things up to suit whatever thoughts they feel most at home with. So whatever makes people happy and helps them sleep soundly at night... I guess it's all good. :dunno: