Jagger69 said:
I must ... <snip> ... tic fascism.
Thanks.
Truman made the most difficult call of that whole god damned war.
The decision to drop the bomb didn't come from thin air. And it had NOTHING to do with "America showing it's balls to Stalin/The World".
Before the Japanese home islands could have been invaded - the Marines (and other allies) made a costly, bloody island hopping campaign. The names are legion - Betio/Tarawa (3,200 casualties in 3 days), Iwo Jima (26,000 casualties in 40 days), Saipan (16,580 casualties in 24 days), Peleliu (10,750 casualties in 70 days) and Okinawa (72,000 casualties in 82 days). The allied casualty list for those little lumps of coral and rock were horrenderous.
Looking at these, what faced the allied planners at the end of the Okinawa battle? The invasion of the Japanese home islands. Enter "Operation Downfall" - consisting of two halves:
1. Operation Olympic - the invasion of Kyushu set in November 1945
2. Operation Coronet - the invasion of Honshu ser in Spring 1945
The fanatical resistance of the Japanese so far - set in their Bushido code of no surrender (indeed. In the islands that the Marines captured after cloody fighting, they managed to take few - if any - prisoners of war. The Japanese either fought to the last man or shot himself rather than surrender) had cost the allied tens of thousands (and the Japanese hundreds of thousands). The civillian population was being primed to 'resist the savage American beast' with little more than bamboo spears if needs be, rather than surrender and face dishonour and shame.
On 16 July President Truman was in Berlin. On 16 July the first atomic test was conducted, but the results had yet to be analyzed. He was in Europe and not able to convene a JCS meeting. Even after the atomic test results were analyzed and determined to be successful, planning for the invasion of Japan went ahead because there was no guarantee that this new weapon would compel the Japanese to surrender.
What was the projected casualty rates for Operation Downfall (Olympic + Coronet) ??
In a study done by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in April, the figures of 7.45 casualties/1000 man-days and 1.78 fatalities/1000 man-days were developed. This implied that a 90-day Olympic campaign would cost 456,000 casualties, including 109,000 dead or missing. If Coronet took another 90 days, the combined cost would be 1,200,000 casualties, with 267,000 fatalities.
In a conference with President Truman on 18 June, George C Marshall, using the recapture of Luzon as the best model for Olympic, thought the Americans would suffer 31,000 casualties in the first 30 days (and ultimately 20% of Japanese casualties, which implied a total of 70,000 casualties). Adm. Leahy, using the recently completed Battle of Okinawa, thought the American forces would suffer a 35% casualty rate (implying an ultimate toll of 268,000).
A study done for Secretary of War Henry Stimson's staff by William Shockley estimated that conquering Japan would cost 1.7–4 million American casualties, including 400,000–800,000 fatalities, and five to ten million Japanese fatalities. The key assumption was large-scale participation by civilians in the defense of Japan.
LINK
In anycase, the Japanese were bound to suffer
more casualties (certainly at a higher rate) than the Americans - as had been demonstrated by the previous years worth of combat all across the Pacific.
So Truman was faced with massive death by combat if he invaded - or massive death of the Japanese by starvation had he not (and let the war drag on for who knows how many years?).
It was in the interests of all sane people in the world to end the war ASAP.
What would you have Truman do?
Oh and just as a little foot note:
"When Specialist Martin J. Begosh of the 1st Armored Division was wounded by a land mine in Bosnia on 29 December 1995, he, like every soldier, airman, sailor, and Marine wounded in Korea, Vietnam, and the Persian Gulf War, received a Purple Heart for valor, a medal minted in preparation for the invasion o