In 30 days, unlikely. I still approve of his job, but optically it is a rough patch for him.
He is being hurt by two issues gifted to him:
- Afghanistan - he followed through on Trump’s agreement.
- COVID - heavily Republican states are seeing surges of the virus. Republicans are still fighting against COVID measures.
Biden will own parts of these messes very shortly. Keep in mind Trump railed against Obama for his entire 4 years. Biden is only two-thirds of a year through.
The most logical question for me: what would be different with Trump there? We may still be in Afghanistan pouring blood and resources into an unwinnable position. A position no one would care about yet because it would not be on TV. Recall Trump touted his great deal with the Taliban.
On COVID it would not be any better - or any different actually. In fact, it may have been worse.
I think it's clear that Biden handled the situation no better that if the US was under trump. If anything, trump's unpredictable nature may have kept the taliban from being too aggressive while the withdrawal was going on. There is a change they might have been scared into waiting; although the refugee fallout would be no different.
As it stands, I think they felt they could risk walking over biden, and it turns out they were right.
COVID... I don't know. I would have thought it would be clear that it would have been worse under trump. But with his softening stance on vaccines (like in the video), I wonder what would have happened if he relayed that message to his supporters - would they have listened or would they have turned on him? If it were the former, there
may have been an improvement in the red states, which would have made a national difference. But that would with a
huge caveat that he did a total 180 on his stance on everything to that point- and if his supporters would buy it. Since the vaccine was made on his watch, he could spin it as a huge win if he got the US public to get jabbed. biden's victory only gave more reasons for his supporters to refuse getting vaccinated.
I think another question might be whether the US would be better off had another dem nominee won.