MLB 2010 Thread

[shayd]

Well, it's a new year, and with it comes a new season of Major League Baseball. While the season is still a few months from starting, there are a number of stories this offseason that should hold us over until the season starts. I'm hoping to have time in the coming months to do predictions like last year, but I can't swear to it just yet. With that out of the way, let the discussion begin:

The overwhelming theme of the offseason was that money is still tight among all of the teams, but that didn't stop Matt Holliday from getting a 7 year, $120 million contract from the Cardinals, who may now be hard pressed financially to keep Albert Pujols after the 2011 season.

The Yankees aquired both Javier Vasquez and Curtis Granderson in seperate trades with the Braves and Tigers, respectively, all but ensuring that Johnny Damon will not be back in New York (he vastly overrated his worth).

Roy Halladay was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies for prospects, one of whom (Michael Taylor) was then flipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace. Cliff Lee was then dealt to the Mariners, who also added Chone Figgins, and in the process lost Adrian Beltre.

Those are just a few of the stories, so with that, let the season begin!

 

[feller469]

The Red Sox getting John Lackey is awesome. I am not thrilled about Beltre at third. Marco Scuturo at short will be a plus if he can play 140+ games. Mike Cameron is a solid player but I don't know how he will perform at 35. The Sox won 95 games last year. It might be a little tougher to get that many this year.

I will be keeping an eye on the Orioles this year. They have some young talent and might be close into September this year.

 

[shayd]

The Red Sox getting John Lackey is awesome. I am not thrilled about Beltre at third. Marco Scuturo at short will be a plus if he can play 140+ games. Mike Cameron is a solid player but I don't know how he will perform at 35. The Sox won 95 games last year. It might be a little tougher to get that many this year.

I will be keeping an eye on the Orioles this year. They have some young talent and might be close into September this year.

Lackey is a bit of a gamble for Boston. He's moving from a slightly hitter friendly park, to a good hitters park (about 11% about a neutral park), so his numbers will probably dip a bit. The big risk is in giving a contract of that length to a 31 year old who hasn't thrown a pitch in the month of April in 2 years.

Beltre is a solid signing, especially at the money he's making. Defensively, a conservative estimate puts him at about 10 UZR, and even if he hits at the same rate as last year, that still makes him a 2+ win player. He easily should be making about 13-15 million (that's his value), so Boston got a bit of a steal there. Scutaro will probably put up decent number is Fenway, but he'll probably regress from last year, and Cameron has a history of being up and down from year to year. With the overall rotation though, the Red Sox, on first glance appear to be the top AL East team.

The Orioles will have a talented offense, but their rotation falls somewhere in between meh and a nice shade of suck.

 

[BAYAMONXXX]

Nice thread shayd you are the Peter Gammons of freeones

I like that the mets signed Jason Bay that was a great pickup for them. but they still need a fifth starter, a first basemen if he's healthy bring back Delgado. and what's up with Molina will they sign him? i haven't heard teams interested in him but the mets.

 

[Red001]

Molina wants 3 years, the Mets have offered 1 plus an option. i see lots of free agents scrambling for jobs come feb and march.
boy Detroit Certainly has weakend themselves this but they are building nicely for 2011 good thing the play in the AL Central where 85 wins might win the division.
the Cardinals overpaid for Holliday and they set the bare minium price for Puljos.
Damon and his agent horribly misread this market as did Adam Laroche he rejected 2 years and 17 million from the Giants he won't get that in 2 or 3 weeks

red001

 

[StanScratch]

Oh yeah? The Reds signed Josh Anderson this off season! Choke on it, bitches! How's THAT move counteract the Holliday signing? It's that kind of move that will solidify Cincinnati's hold on forth place.

The Holliday signing...I'm not really sure about it. He's one year younger than Alfonso Soriano was when he signed his big contract with the Cubs...and that one is not exactly looking like a great deal. I think Holliday is a better hitter, but tying up a guy for such a long period of time can end up being a regretful move in a lot of cases.

 

[shayd]

Nice thread shayd you are the Peter Gammons of freeones

I like that the mets signed Jason Bay that was a great pickup for them. but they still need a fifth starter, a first basemen if he's healthy bring back Delgado. and what's up with Molina will they sign him? i haven't heard teams interested in him but the mets.

Why thank you, my friend!

As for the Mets, certainly Bay is a good offensive addition. Chone and Bill James both have him at about .380 wOBA, which looks pretty damn good when the league average for last year was about .340. The problem is the train wreck that is Jason Bay in the field. He's still good for about 3.5-4 WAR, which is a really good upgrade for the Mets.

I think Delgado is a pretty safe bet to come back to the Mets. He's not elite anymore, but he's good for about 2.5 wins and he's probably going to be relatively cheap. If not, Russell Braynon is certainly an option, but he's looking for more money and years, and has about as extensive an injury history as Delgado.

Molina was all but signed early on, until he tried to squeeze a bit more money out of the Mets. In the end, I think the deal gets done, but only for about $12 over 2 years, not the $20 million over 3 he's looking for.

 

[Jagger69]

The Holliday signing...I'm not really sure about it. He's one year younger than Alfonso Soriano was when he signed his big contract with the Cubs...and that one is not exactly looking like a great deal. I think Holliday is a better hitter, but tying up a guy for such a long period of time can end up being a regretful move in a lot of cases.

The Cardinals had to give him that, Stan. Otherwise, he would have walked. It's all part of a strategy to keep Albert in a Cardinal uni for the rest of his career and by sending him the message that Holliday has got his back for the next 7 years. It's huge. The Cardinals are counting on a shorter-term payoff and they'll deal with the pain of a $17 million 37-year-old outfielder when it happens. In the meantime, I'd like to see us add another solid #4 or #5 starter to replace either Lohse or Wellemeyer next season after Piniero bolts for a team dumb enough to offer him ridiculous money (Omar Maniya perhaps?) as well as a legitimate 3rd baseman instead of Mark DeRosa. If we can do that (and keep Smoltz in the bullpen if he decides to come back), we've got a real good shot going into next season.

By the way, I'm predicting that Albert gets at least $20 million/year when the Cardinals resign him next off-season....maybe more if the Yankees or Red Sox jack up his value by bidding for him. No way do the Cardinals let Albert walk away. He is the franchise.

 

[StanScratch]

Yeah, the Cardinals really do need Holliday right now, otherwise, I can see Albert being walked a whole lot (dear Reds, please read that last part...).
And though the contract does seem a bit long, I do see the Cardinals being a smart enough organization to trade him off as his production begins to drop off, sticking another team with the contract, a la Scott Rolen (thanks for that, by the way - it does tell me that should there be a salary cap of some sorts, it could help baseball in that teams that throw money around such as the Yankees and Redsox could become a bit less powerful - wise teams that know when to move their players such as the Cardinals and Twins could flourish, while the eternally foolish teams such as the Reds, Pirates, Royals and Orioles would continue to struggle).

 

[shayd]

The Cardinals had to give him that, Stan. Otherwise, he would have walked. It's all part of a strategy to keep Albert in a Cardinal uni for the rest of his career and by sending him the message that Holliday has got his back for the next 7 years. It's huge. The Cardinals are counting on a shorter-term payoff and they'll deal with the pain of a $17 million 37-year-old outfielder when it happens. In the meantime, I'd like to see us add another solid #4 or #5 starter to replace either Lohse or Wellemeyer next season after Piniero bolts for a team dumb enough to offer him ridiculous money (Omar Maniya perhaps?) as well as a legitimate 3rd baseman instead of Mark DeRosa. If we can do that (and keep Smoltz in the bullpen if he decides to come back), we've got a real good shot going into next season.

By the way, I'm predicting that Albert gets at least $20 million/year when the Cardinals resign him next off-season....maybe more if the Yankees or Red Sox jack up his value by bidding for him. No way do the Cardinals let Albert walk away. He is the franchise.

It may not be a matter of what they want to give Pujols, but rather what they can. St. Louis after the 2011 season is going to be really hard pressed to be able to field a competitive team with $40ish million invested in two players.

 

[Red001]

sure the Cardinals can compete with 40 million tied up in 2 players they do it one of 2 ways go with a payroll closer to 150 million or go with 23 young players from the farm system. oh wait thier farm system dosen't have 5 players that will help them anytime soon so i gues the payroll goes up in St. Louis.

red001

 

[Jagger69]

It may not be a matter of what they want to give Pujols, but rather what they can. St. Louis after the 2011 season is going to be really hard pressed to be able to field a competitive team with $40ish million invested in two players.

Trust me....the Cardinals will break the bank to keep Albert in St. Louis. His image is everywhere you go in town....hell, he IS the Cardinals. Pujols has stated a number of times that he wants to play his entire career with the Redbirds and I don't think Bill DeWitt would risk running Albert out of town just to keep a newcomer like Matt Holliday (he has already become a fan favorite but enjoys nowhere near the status of Albert). There would be a fan riot if Mozeliak lets Albert walk away. My bet is he resigns with St. Louis.

sure the Cardinals can compete with 40 million tied up in 2 players they do it one of 2 ways go with a payroll closer to 150 million or go with 23 young players from the farm system. oh wait thier farm system dosen't have 5 players that will help them anytime soon so i gues the payroll goes up in St. Louis.

red001

Hmmmm.....not sure where you get that info from, Red. They can probably let Wainwright AND Carpenter walk in a year or 2 since they have some top-flight pitching prospects in the farm system right now. Miller, Garcia and Lynn are all "A" prospects. Brett Wallace was the only real "A" player they lost in the Holliday deal and they are hoping that David Freese can step up and be the regular 3rd baseman this season. Besides, I think that management sees a championship window of opportunity closing in the next couple of seasons and they want to win NOW so they are rolling the dice. I'm all for it. Better than sitting here in Houston and watching the pitiful Astros pinch pennies season after season.

 

[Chrism86354]

The Tigers are going to be bad again! :-( Maybe they will surprise.

 

[zell]

I can't really speak on what other teams have done right now,because to be honest,I just don't care,but my White Sox have kinda pissed me off.

The starting rotation has the potential to be the best we've seen since the feared foursome of Maddox,Smoltz,Glavine,and Avery back in the day with the Atlanta Braves,but after that the bullpen is still a bit of a question mark.I think letting DJ Carrasco walk is going to end up as a huge mistake unless they are banking that Daniel Hudson is good to go in long relief.Still would've been nice to have kept him around though,considering that he was making peanuts.And if Scott Linebrink can't get his shit together this year, then we could be really screwed.

on the offensive side,I don't know what the fuck Kenny is thinking.Picking up guys like Omar Visquel and Andrew Jones to sit on the bench just seems like a waste of time to me.I know that they are cheap and that if they produce could be beneficial,but I think that they could've done better in the off season.

Also,I wish they would stop fucking around with Gordon Beckham and just let him play one position,instead of making him have to learn yet another one(3 in 2 years,including college).

Mark Teahan isn't any real improvement,Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin better fucking hit this year,Alexi Ramirez better stop making stupid errors,Juan Pierre can hopefully be a quality lead off man for us.

There are just way too many questions about this team than answers right now.If it all comes together,then we should walk away with the Central,but there are just too many ifs for me to claim that right now.

Oh,and fuck you Kenny for getting rid of Dye.I guess having that terrible second half last season was finally the excuse that he was looking for to get rid of him.Oh,and we don't really have shit for left handed hitting this season.This could get ugly.

 

[D-rock]

Yeah, the Cardinals really do need Holliday right now, otherwise, I can see Albert being walked a whole lot (dear Reds, please read that last part...).

It's almost always more beneficial if teams keep walking one of your players.

 

[Legzman]

My prediction for this year is...the Cubs won't make it to the world series...AGAIN!

 

[raychik]

I'm sad about Melky and Matsui leaving but don't really care about Damon. The Yanks got better pitching and defense and about the same offense as last year. I'm really happy that Theo Epstein decided 2010 was a wash and is setting up for the 2011 (which makes sense since 2011 has a deeper free agent class but Sox fans don't want to hear that). I see the Yankees winning it again in 2010 by more games than in 2009 since we'll have A-Rod on opening day and hopefully Tex can cure is perennial April suckiness. One player that I do want back is Wang, I haven't given up on him yet.

 

[titsrock]

I'm not happy at all with any of the Sox moves. Lackey is a good signing but not a great signing.

I can't believe the Sox think they can win anything with a broken down Papi striking out and popping up again.

WHERE ARE THE HOMERS GOING TO COME FROM

It will be slap and tickle small ball at Fenway Park this season....BOOOOOOOOO!

 

[HE1FiNEARTiST]

GO ASTROS! FUCK YEA! :thumbsup:

 

[shayd]

Trust me....the Cardinals will break the bank to keep Albert in St. Louis. His image is everywhere you go in town....hell, he IS the Cardinals. Pujols has stated a number of times that he wants to play his entire career with the Redbirds and I don't think Bill DeWitt would risk running Albert out of town just to keep a newcomer like Matt Holliday (he has already become a fan favorite but enjoys nowhere near the status of Albert). There would be a fan riot if Mozeliak lets Albert walk away. My bet is he resigns with St. Louis.

Oh, I have no doubt that the Cardinals will be willing to break the bank, but judging by the fact that they had an $87 payroll last year, it doesn't look like they would be able to afford much else at that clip. I'm willing to bet Wainright has his option picked up after 2011, but he's going to make $6.5 million that year with a $6.5 million option, which is actually quite a steal at this point, but assuming that, and Carpenter has a $15 million option, that's a huge chuck of change. Even if Carpenter walks, that's over half the payroll in three players.

Hmmmm.....not sure where you get that info from, Red. They can probably let Wainwright AND Carpenter walk in a year or 2 since they have some top-flight pitching prospects in the farm system right now. Miller, Garcia and Lynn are all "A" prospects. Brett Wallace was the only real "A" player they lost in the Holliday deal and they are hoping that David Freese can step up and be the regular 3rd baseman this season. Besides, I think that management sees a championship window of opportunity closing in the next couple of seasons and they want to win NOW so they are rolling the dice. I'm all for it. Better than sitting here in Houston and watching the pitiful Astros pinch pennies season after season.

None of those guys are even close to A prospects. Hell, Wallace was a fringe A-, and that was exclusively because of his bat. Miller was given a B his year, although he was given a high ceiling. Garcia was give a B-, because he's coming back from Tommy John surgery, and that's still a bit of a risk, plus since he's been back, his numbers haven't been great. Lynn also got a B-, but he projects as more of a #3, with the added bonus of being an innings eater. Those guys look like they'll be solid regulars, but at this point, none of them look like stars, and two of the three have major injury histories at very early ages. Freese got a C+, fringe B-, he looks to be the surest bet out of that lot to reach his potential, which looks like 20 homers and a plus glove.

The point is, while Holliday is an elite player, the contract they gave him was average at best for the benefit of the team, because they basically paid him close to market value, for someone who should be elite for a couple of years, and then above average for a few more, at which point having a no-trade clause really comes back to hurt the Cards, especially if they want to have the money to keep Pujols and still field a competitive team.