I don't see Swisher getting alot of playing time at all. Only with injuries, or if someone needs an off day will Swisher be playing. Swisher would be the best offensive option for starter in center field I think, but he would be too much of a defensive burdon, and the Yanks don't need any more crappy D in the outfield, so that pretty much axes him as the full time center fielder. Brett Gardner is good on defense, but sucks on offense, as does Melky. I'd say give the sarting center field job to Melky.
MLB 2009 thread
- Thread starter Becks...poamr
- Start date
I don't see Swisher getting alot of playing time at all. Only with injuries, or if someone needs an off day will Swisher be playing. Swisher would be the best offensive option for starter in center field I think, but he would be too much of a defensive burdon, and the Yanks don't need any more crappy D in the outfield, so that pretty much axes him as the full time center fielder. Brett Gardner is good on defense, but sucks on offense, as does Melky. I'd say give the sarting center field job to Melky.
As for the Dodgers, Man Ram remains unsigned, and Pornstache Kent retired. It turns out that the market isn't that big for Man Ram, so I'm pretty sure they will sign him. As for Kent, he was a great player, but one of the biggest cancers to play the game. I won't miss him. The Dodgers better get busy and start signing someone though. Right now, a triple A team has more power than them.
As promised, my outlooks for next season (Warning: LONG post)
Admittedly, this is a rather unscientific listing, as I’ve compiled values for players relative to their positions, however the underlying process is solid, and thus should be fairly reputable (my predictions, perhaps not so much). Players will be listed by position, followed by their value last season, offensively and defensively, respectively.
Atlanta:
C: Brian McCann (+27 runs, +11 runs)
He’s a superb offensive catcher and a great defender at a premium defensive position. He’s young, he’s got power, and he’s got discipline at the plate. It’s hard to find a better value in baseball at his position than McCann. His total value is somewhere in the neighborhood of 58 runs, which makes him about a +6 win player.
1B: Casey Kotchman (-2.5 runs, +5.3 runs)
Kotchman may not have been joking when he said he wished he could have played for the Angels for his entire career. His splits between the two teams are staggering, and he may never reach his power potential (read, he HAS no power potential). Still, I do believe he will improve next year, (as does CHONE and Bill James) but with a ground ball percentage (nearly 53%) he may be in for more of the same. The names on the list of hitters with GB% percentages that high includes names like Jose Reyes, and Carl Crawford. What name on that list doesn’t seem to belong? Total him up, and you’re looking at about +1 win.
2B: Kelly Johnson (+9 runs, -8.3 runs)
Johnson had a higher isolated power rating than Kotchman, however he probably won’t improve that number drastically. He’s a bit of a defensive work in progress (if you ask me, he should be playing the outfield again), but overall worth about 23 runs or about 2 wins.
SS: Yunel Escobar (+10.7 runs, +5.9 runs)
It’s a wonder to me that the Braves ever seriously considered signing Furcal to any sort of deal (unless they planned to move him to another position) because Escobar is a stud. His numbers by themselves don’t pop out at you, but adjusting his numbers to his position, and you’ve got a top 5 shortstop in the league. He’s worth about 36 runs which puts him at about +4 wins.
3B: Chipper Jones (+34.5 runs, +4.9 runs)
Wow, what do you say about a guy who’s actually gotten better with age? Yeah, he’ll probably have some trouble staying healthy for the whole season, but you can’t argue with his numbers. 76.6 runs overall, or about +8 wins (the third most win-valuable player in MLB last season).
LF: Matt Diaz(-1.5 runs, -1.6 runs)
Diaz looked absolutely terrible last year, with drop-offs in nearly ever offensive category, (and let’s face it, he’s no ace in the field) but it may have simply been due to injury. Because he only played in 43 games last year, his numbers are the result of the average of his past two seasons. If he’s healthy, he’s an above average player (to the tune of about +12 runs offensively), but judging from last year, that may be a big if. Total run value near +10, which makes him about a +1 win player (although excluding last season he’s about a +3 win player).
CF: Josh Anderson(-2.9 runs, 3.6 runs)
It’s tough to be an Atlanta center fielder. Anderson has almost no power, but is a slightly above average defender. He did get on base a lot, which is certainly a plus in his case, so I may have to reserve final judgement on him for a while. Overall +10.6 runs, or about +1 win.
RF: Jeff Francoeur(-0.9 runs, -6.8 runs)
Hard to see where Francoeur went wrong. He was great in 2006, but even then he was below league average. I certainly expect him to improve over the last couple of seasons, but I think we can all finally lay to rest the idea that he is a high-average, high-power hitter. If he wants to be guaranteed a spot, he better produce, and fast. Overall value of
-14.9, or about -1 win (1 loss).
SP: Javier Vasquez(+15)
Great stuff, control problems at times, but overall a great pitcher to have, and Atlanta will certainly reap the benefits.
SP: Derek Lowe(+10)
Give him credit, he was pretty darn good last season. Problem is, he was more than a run off of his career adjusted FIP ERA, and may not have a great defensive second baseman behind him which is where almost 35% of his recorded outs go, (I know, I know, he’s used to Jeff Kent, but the point remains).
SP: Jair Jurrjens(+5 runs)
Young and talented, and should continue to improve. Should show that his time in Detroit was the exception, not the rule.
SP: Kenshin Kawakami(+0)
Stats are hard to come by for this guy, so we’re going to assume for the sake of argument that he is about league average.
SP: Jorge Campillo(+0)
Not a bad player, but just barely above league average. Room for improvement, but he’s not really at an age where sustained improvement is observed very often.
Bullpen: (+5)
M. Gonzalez(+5), R. Soriano(+0), M. Acosta(-5), B. Boyer(+0), B. Logan(+0), B. Carlyle(+5), J. Bennett(+5), J. Ridgway(-5)
Overall: About +70 runs, 88-74
New York Mets:
C: Brian Schneider (-4.9 runs, +0 runs)
Not too much to say here, a slightly below league average catcher, who doesn’t slug, and doesn’t have a particularly high weighted OBP. I see him coming out to be about league average next year, possibly a bit lower. Value of +13 runs, or about +1 win.
1B: Carlos Delgado (+22 runs, -5 runs)
Wow, two years ago he was presumed to be done by most of the league. He’s produced one very bad season (bad in the sense that he slugged nearly a full 100 points lower than his career average, and walked almost 35% fewer times than on any other given year), and one great year offensively. He’s certainly not good with the glove, but should be able to stick it out. I think he’s got another year left before his stats start to slip into oblivion. Overall +29 runs or about +3 wins.
2B: Luis Castillo (-2.8 runs, -10.5 runs)
Well, what can you buy for 6.5 million dollars these days? How about a rapidly aging, no power, low OBP, low average, terrible defensive second baseman? Okay, that may be a bit harsh, but he looked abysmal at best last year, he’s 33, and not getting quicker, and may have to live with being a bust as a Met. +5.4 runs overall, good for +0 wins.
SS: Jose Reyes (+19 runs, -1.5 runs)
He’s still fast, and like it or not, can still get on base. Lightyears better offensively than defensively, but still a solid average shortstop whom the Mets can count on. CHONE has him staying about the same next year, and I tend to agree, although if he starts walking like he did two years ago, he could easily OPS 830+. Overall +57 runs, or about +6 wins.
3B: David Wright (+42.3 runs, +1.6 runs)
Another young stud the Mets have locked up for a while. While he gets WAY more defensive credit than he deserves, (statistically he’s average at best), his offensive game keeps getting better. I see him going for about .300/.385/.530 with a good 30 home runs, and that’s really, really good. Overall, he’s valued at +72 runs, or about +7 wins.
LF: Daniel Murphy (-2.3 runs, +0.4 runs)
His stats suffer horribly from being a small sample size, but I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and put him at average and not below it. He is at a disadvantage of playing a position that usually entails being a above average player, and he hasn’t exactly shown that yet at the Major League level. Overall +9 runs, or about +0 wins.
CF: Carlos Beltran (+32.6 runs, +6.1 runs)
You can’t really argue Beltran’s status as a plus player in nearly every facet of the game. He’s already shown pop and the ability to get on base to the tune of a .846 OPS. The question is, will he keep that strikeout level as low as he did last season, or is he going to turn into a prototypical power center fielder? Overall +64 runs or about +6 wins.
RF: Ryan Church (+2 runs, +0.7 runs)
He’s beginning to look more and more like he’s an average player, but he has shown some improvement. Overall +12 runs, or +1 win.
SP: Johan Santana (+20)
Solid stuff to be sure last year, but look deeper and his stats may be a bit more revealing. ERA down, FIP down, Strikeouts down, velocity down, walks up. Last year was an exceptional year by many accounts, but don’t be surprise to see him come down this year.
SP: John Maine (+0)
Looked really good at times, then came back down to Earth. I think he’s got plus stuff, but his FIP, WHIP, Fly Ball percentage are all rising, as in, dramatically.
SP: Mike Pelfrey (+5)
His numbers are solid despite having an iffy season last year. I think he’ll be better next year, even if CHONE disagrees with me.
SP: Tim Redding (-5)
Personally, I feel the Mets would have been better suited to just resign Pedro, but maybe he was too expensive for what they were getting. Instead they got a below average pitcher, and apparently have high hopes for. How is he below average you ask? Since he started his career, only twice has he posted adjusted ERAs under 4.50. Yeah, it could be a long season for Redding.
SP: Jonathon Niese (+0)
Promising stuff, but hasn’t really delivered at higher levels yet. His actual value is somewhere between +5 and -5, so I just averaged them out to figure out his worth.
Bullpen:
F. Rodriguez(+5)
JJ. Puts(+5),
D. Sanchez(-5)
P. Feliciano(-10)
S. Green(+0)
B. Stokes(-5)
C. Muniz(-10)
B. Parnell(+0)
The Mets still have an outstanding offense, let me just say that. I know a lot of Mets fans aren’t going to be happy with me here, but they really only made one upgrade to their bullpen: Putz. Rodriguez actually isn’t a significant upgrade over Wagner, in fact, he’s about 8 runs less valuable, but that’s really just arguing semantics. Don’t believe me? Rodriguez has for the past 4 years increased his FIP by almost half a run per season. His velocity is down almost 8 MPH over the same span, he’s getting hit more often, and harder than he has at any earlier point. The pattern is clear, but let’s see if a change of scenery will work some magic. If I was Jerry Manuel, I’d give Putz the 9th and give Rodriguez the 8th, but only time will tell I suppose.
Overall: +104 runs
About 91-71.
Florida Marlins:
C: John Baker (+5 runs, +0 runs)
Baker is pretty adept as an OBP centered player. He certainly showed he could do that, now all that’s left is to see if he can cut down on the K rate. Overall +20 runs or +2 wins.
1B: Jorge Cantu (+12 runs, -5 runs)
Cantu showed some serious pop last year. Something he hasn’t shown consistently since 2005. He’s a plus offensive player to be sure, but the defense certainly leaves something to be desired. Overall+27 runs or about +3 wins.
2B: Dan Uggla (+24 runs, -5 runs)
Looks to me like a Jeff Kent type player through and through. Glove is a bit of a liability, but the power is there. Again, strikeouts are a concern, but only if that BB% (~12%) comes down. Overall +47 runs or about +5 wins.
SS: Hanley Ramirez (+46 runs, -1 runs)
Easily top 3 shortstops in the game offensively, I’d actually probably put him at the top of the list right now. Offensive star, defense is not terrible, but slightly below average. Overall +75 runs or about +8 wins.
3B: Dallas McPherson (+30 runs, +0 runs)
Funny how a player can be a top prospect, get injured, disappear, and reemerge all of the sudden with 42 homers, huh? He’s probably not going to repeat that, and there is a strong “fluke” label in my mind, but he could easily put 20+ out, and have a line similar to .250/.320/.400 or higher. Overall +25 runs or about +3 wins.
LF: Cody Ross (+8 runs, +10 runs)
Perhaps one of the rarest commodities on the Marlins: someone better defensively than offensively. Again, he probably won’t put up the power numbers his did last season, but I look for the OPS+ to stay about the same. Overall, +38 runs, or about 4 wins.
CF: Cameron Maybin (+0 runs, +0 runs)
Tools, tools, tools. Maybin’s got them, but he hasn’t been able to turn them into numbers yet. Abysmal strikeout rate for a center fielder greatly diminishes his overall value, but still, I’ll give him credit and list him as average to above. Overall +9 runs or +1 win.
RF: Jeremy Hermida (-1 runs, -5 runs)
Good power, no discipling, low numbers nearly all the way across the board. Often seems out of position in right, but may ultimately be considered an average fielder. Overall +4 runs, or +0 wins.
SP: Ricky Nolasco (+10)
Looked really good last year to be sure. Key to success for him is going to be maintaining the control he showed somewhat out of nowhere last year.
SP: Josh Johnson (+5)
Could be the secret ace of this staff if he puts up a full season of production on pace with last year. Problem is, he hasn’t stayed healthy save for one season.
SP: Chris Volstad (+5)
Another potential ace in the making. Has the stuff, and has shown great promise so far, and delivered on it too. May see a spike in ERA when people start to figure him out, but how he bounces back may end up defining him.
SP: Anibal Sanchez (+0)
I believe I’m repeating myself when I say tools, tools, tools. Has to stay healthy, but I think he can be a solid above average starter.
SP: Andrew Miller (+5)
May not be the star people once thought he was, but has definitely shown some serious ability. Problem is, he actually looked better last year than he has his entire career, so I’m afraid he may actually decline somewhat.
Bullpen:
M. Lindstrom (+0)
L. Nunez (+0)
L. Kensing (-5)
R. Pinto (-10)
S. Proctor (-15)
B. Badenhop (-5)
J. Delgado (-15)
E. De La Cruz (+0)
R. Tucker (-10)
Overall:
Clearly a team built around offense, the Marlins should have no problem scoring runs this season. However, bullpen issues, as well as defensive weaknesses may ultimately doom the South Beach team, but one thing is for sure, they can hit.
Overall about +71 runs, 88-74.
Philadelphia Phillies:
C: Carlos Ruiz(-16 runs, -4 runs)
Not a whole lot to say here. Not good. Not good at all. +0 wins.
1B: Ryan Howard (+20 runs, +0 runs)
Not a whole lot to say here either. Still has the power, still strikes out, still walks a lot. An elite hitter when he’s on, his number have slipped each of the past two seasons, which may be a warning sign. Overall +31 runs, or about 3 wins.
2B: Chase Utley (Marcus Giles) (+34 runs, +17 runs/-14 runs, -5 runs)
I’m going to assume here that if Utley is hurt that Giles gets the playing time, but let’s just say it’s not even close to a good trade off. Simply put, Utley is elite in almost all facets of the game, and Giles is not. In fact, Utley was the second most valuable player in the NL last year, I wonder who the first was, (St. Louis-cough-first baseman-cough) Overall Utley is +79 runs, or about +8 wins.
SS: Jimmy Rollins(+13 runs, +5 runs)
Rollins has somewhat of an interesting season last year in that he improved his weighted OBP, walk rate, and struck out less often, however it could simply be a smaller sample size. Above average in both offensive and defensive prowess, he probably won’t improve too much. Overall +51 runs or +5 wins.
3B: Pedro Feliz (-9.0 runs, +5 runs)
Terrible hitter with absolutely zero plate discipline, but a decent fielder. The problem I see is that he may be the only one on the team that doesn’t fit the OBP centric mold. Overall +11 runs or +1 win.
LF: Raul Ibanez (+10 runs, -18 runs)
This is an absolutely puzzling move by the Phillies. They let Pat Burrell walk, and Ibanez is who they chose to sign instead. Burrell has been the third worst fielding outfielder in the league the past three years. Can you guess who number two is? That’s right, Ibanez, second only to sit-on-the-ball Manny in terms of worst fielding value. On top of that, Burrell is younger, probably only would have been marginally more expensive, and projects as +19 runs next year. We’ll see how it plays out. Overall 12.1 runs or +1 win.
CF: Shane Victorino (+11 runs, +5 runs)
Victorino is a guy who hits, plays good defense, and gets on base at an above average level. Has improved every year so far, and I look for that trend to continue for another couple of years. Overall +37 runs, or about +4 wins.
RF: Jayson Werth (+5 runs, +10 runs)
At almost 30, Werth finally delivered on much of the hype surrounding him. I have some doubts as to whether he can keep the numbers that high next year, but I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. Overall, +27 runs, or about +3 wins.
SP: Cole Hamels (+20)
Simply put, he’s a stud. He’ll keep putting up good number next year too.
SP: Brett Myers (+10)
Wow, any time I see a guy struggling on my team from now on, I’m going to be the first to advocate sending him down for 5 starts and going from there. The difference in Myers pre and post demotion are marked, but regardless, he still has a FIP over 4.50. What does that tell you? He’s a hard thrower who either strikes people out, or gives up a LOT of runs.
SP: Jamie Moyer (+5)
He had a spectacular season last year-at age 45. He may well be in for a rough year.
SP: Joe Blanton (+5)
Good, but not great stuff. An old favorite of mine, Blanton will eat more innings than steaks, but that adjusted ERA is consistently going to sit around 4.25-4.75.
SP: Kyle Kendrick (-10)
His ERA last season was 5.49, his FIP was 5.55. Anytime those numbers are so high and close you have to cringe. Showed some promise in the minors, but he’s going to have to adjust, and quickly.
Bullpen:
B. Lidge (+15)
He’s back to his dominant form, and all signs point to that trend continuing.
R. Madson (+0)
J. Romero (-5)
C. Condrey (+0)
C. Durbin (+0)
S. Eyre (+5)
Was the victim of quite a few of Burrell’s errors, and it shows, but I can’t see him putting up another sub 3 FIP with that flyball percentage.
J. Happ (-10)
Phillie fans better hope he gets a starting job, because he was horrid out of the pen.
J. Bisenius (-10)
M. Zagurski (-15)
Walk rate is way too high for a strikeout rate that low, doesn’t help that he was lit up before he got hurt.
Overall: +94 runs, about 90-72.
I am averaging out the impact of Giles potentially being in the lineup for a good period of time, but still factored in the impact that Utley would have. The Phillies offensively look really good in places, and not so much in others. Outside of Lidge, the bullpen is missing consistency and longevity, which are major concerns for me. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the bullpen was their downfall.
Next up: The NL Central
Admittedly, this is a rather unscientific listing, as I’ve compiled values for players relative to their positions, however the underlying process is solid, and thus should be fairly reputable (my predictions, perhaps not so much). Players will be listed by position, followed by their value last season, offensively and defensively, respectively.
Atlanta:
C: Brian McCann (+27 runs, +11 runs)
He’s a superb offensive catcher and a great defender at a premium defensive position. He’s young, he’s got power, and he’s got discipline at the plate. It’s hard to find a better value in baseball at his position than McCann. His total value is somewhere in the neighborhood of 58 runs, which makes him about a +6 win player.
1B: Casey Kotchman (-2.5 runs, +5.3 runs)
Kotchman may not have been joking when he said he wished he could have played for the Angels for his entire career. His splits between the two teams are staggering, and he may never reach his power potential (read, he HAS no power potential). Still, I do believe he will improve next year, (as does CHONE and Bill James) but with a ground ball percentage (nearly 53%) he may be in for more of the same. The names on the list of hitters with GB% percentages that high includes names like Jose Reyes, and Carl Crawford. What name on that list doesn’t seem to belong? Total him up, and you’re looking at about +1 win.
2B: Kelly Johnson (+9 runs, -8.3 runs)
Johnson had a higher isolated power rating than Kotchman, however he probably won’t improve that number drastically. He’s a bit of a defensive work in progress (if you ask me, he should be playing the outfield again), but overall worth about 23 runs or about 2 wins.
SS: Yunel Escobar (+10.7 runs, +5.9 runs)
It’s a wonder to me that the Braves ever seriously considered signing Furcal to any sort of deal (unless they planned to move him to another position) because Escobar is a stud. His numbers by themselves don’t pop out at you, but adjusting his numbers to his position, and you’ve got a top 5 shortstop in the league. He’s worth about 36 runs which puts him at about +4 wins.
3B: Chipper Jones (+34.5 runs, +4.9 runs)
Wow, what do you say about a guy who’s actually gotten better with age? Yeah, he’ll probably have some trouble staying healthy for the whole season, but you can’t argue with his numbers. 76.6 runs overall, or about +8 wins (the third most win-valuable player in MLB last season).
LF: Matt Diaz(-1.5 runs, -1.6 runs)
Diaz looked absolutely terrible last year, with drop-offs in nearly ever offensive category, (and let’s face it, he’s no ace in the field) but it may have simply been due to injury. Because he only played in 43 games last year, his numbers are the result of the average of his past two seasons. If he’s healthy, he’s an above average player (to the tune of about +12 runs offensively), but judging from last year, that may be a big if. Total run value near +10, which makes him about a +1 win player (although excluding last season he’s about a +3 win player).
CF: Josh Anderson(-2.9 runs, 3.6 runs)
It’s tough to be an Atlanta center fielder. Anderson has almost no power, but is a slightly above average defender. He did get on base a lot, which is certainly a plus in his case, so I may have to reserve final judgement on him for a while. Overall +10.6 runs, or about +1 win.
RF: Jeff Francoeur(-0.9 runs, -6.8 runs)
Hard to see where Francoeur went wrong. He was great in 2006, but even then he was below league average. I certainly expect him to improve over the last couple of seasons, but I think we can all finally lay to rest the idea that he is a high-average, high-power hitter. If he wants to be guaranteed a spot, he better produce, and fast. Overall value of
-14.9, or about -1 win (1 loss).
SP: Javier Vasquez(+15)
Great stuff, control problems at times, but overall a great pitcher to have, and Atlanta will certainly reap the benefits.
SP: Derek Lowe(+10)
Give him credit, he was pretty darn good last season. Problem is, he was more than a run off of his career adjusted FIP ERA, and may not have a great defensive second baseman behind him which is where almost 35% of his recorded outs go, (I know, I know, he’s used to Jeff Kent, but the point remains).
SP: Jair Jurrjens(+5 runs)
Young and talented, and should continue to improve. Should show that his time in Detroit was the exception, not the rule.
SP: Kenshin Kawakami(+0)
Stats are hard to come by for this guy, so we’re going to assume for the sake of argument that he is about league average.
SP: Jorge Campillo(+0)
Not a bad player, but just barely above league average. Room for improvement, but he’s not really at an age where sustained improvement is observed very often.
Bullpen: (+5)
M. Gonzalez(+5), R. Soriano(+0), M. Acosta(-5), B. Boyer(+0), B. Logan(+0), B. Carlyle(+5), J. Bennett(+5), J. Ridgway(-5)
Overall: About +70 runs, 88-74
New York Mets:
C: Brian Schneider (-4.9 runs, +0 runs)
Not too much to say here, a slightly below league average catcher, who doesn’t slug, and doesn’t have a particularly high weighted OBP. I see him coming out to be about league average next year, possibly a bit lower. Value of +13 runs, or about +1 win.
1B: Carlos Delgado (+22 runs, -5 runs)
Wow, two years ago he was presumed to be done by most of the league. He’s produced one very bad season (bad in the sense that he slugged nearly a full 100 points lower than his career average, and walked almost 35% fewer times than on any other given year), and one great year offensively. He’s certainly not good with the glove, but should be able to stick it out. I think he’s got another year left before his stats start to slip into oblivion. Overall +29 runs or about +3 wins.
2B: Luis Castillo (-2.8 runs, -10.5 runs)
Well, what can you buy for 6.5 million dollars these days? How about a rapidly aging, no power, low OBP, low average, terrible defensive second baseman? Okay, that may be a bit harsh, but he looked abysmal at best last year, he’s 33, and not getting quicker, and may have to live with being a bust as a Met. +5.4 runs overall, good for +0 wins.
SS: Jose Reyes (+19 runs, -1.5 runs)
He’s still fast, and like it or not, can still get on base. Lightyears better offensively than defensively, but still a solid average shortstop whom the Mets can count on. CHONE has him staying about the same next year, and I tend to agree, although if he starts walking like he did two years ago, he could easily OPS 830+. Overall +57 runs, or about +6 wins.
3B: David Wright (+42.3 runs, +1.6 runs)
Another young stud the Mets have locked up for a while. While he gets WAY more defensive credit than he deserves, (statistically he’s average at best), his offensive game keeps getting better. I see him going for about .300/.385/.530 with a good 30 home runs, and that’s really, really good. Overall, he’s valued at +72 runs, or about +7 wins.
LF: Daniel Murphy (-2.3 runs, +0.4 runs)
His stats suffer horribly from being a small sample size, but I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and put him at average and not below it. He is at a disadvantage of playing a position that usually entails being a above average player, and he hasn’t exactly shown that yet at the Major League level. Overall +9 runs, or about +0 wins.
CF: Carlos Beltran (+32.6 runs, +6.1 runs)
You can’t really argue Beltran’s status as a plus player in nearly every facet of the game. He’s already shown pop and the ability to get on base to the tune of a .846 OPS. The question is, will he keep that strikeout level as low as he did last season, or is he going to turn into a prototypical power center fielder? Overall +64 runs or about +6 wins.
RF: Ryan Church (+2 runs, +0.7 runs)
He’s beginning to look more and more like he’s an average player, but he has shown some improvement. Overall +12 runs, or +1 win.
SP: Johan Santana (+20)
Solid stuff to be sure last year, but look deeper and his stats may be a bit more revealing. ERA down, FIP down, Strikeouts down, velocity down, walks up. Last year was an exceptional year by many accounts, but don’t be surprise to see him come down this year.
SP: John Maine (+0)
Looked really good at times, then came back down to Earth. I think he’s got plus stuff, but his FIP, WHIP, Fly Ball percentage are all rising, as in, dramatically.
SP: Mike Pelfrey (+5)
His numbers are solid despite having an iffy season last year. I think he’ll be better next year, even if CHONE disagrees with me.
SP: Tim Redding (-5)
Personally, I feel the Mets would have been better suited to just resign Pedro, but maybe he was too expensive for what they were getting. Instead they got a below average pitcher, and apparently have high hopes for. How is he below average you ask? Since he started his career, only twice has he posted adjusted ERAs under 4.50. Yeah, it could be a long season for Redding.
SP: Jonathon Niese (+0)
Promising stuff, but hasn’t really delivered at higher levels yet. His actual value is somewhere between +5 and -5, so I just averaged them out to figure out his worth.
Bullpen:
F. Rodriguez(+5)
JJ. Puts(+5),
D. Sanchez(-5)
P. Feliciano(-10)
S. Green(+0)
B. Stokes(-5)
C. Muniz(-10)
B. Parnell(+0)
The Mets still have an outstanding offense, let me just say that. I know a lot of Mets fans aren’t going to be happy with me here, but they really only made one upgrade to their bullpen: Putz. Rodriguez actually isn’t a significant upgrade over Wagner, in fact, he’s about 8 runs less valuable, but that’s really just arguing semantics. Don’t believe me? Rodriguez has for the past 4 years increased his FIP by almost half a run per season. His velocity is down almost 8 MPH over the same span, he’s getting hit more often, and harder than he has at any earlier point. The pattern is clear, but let’s see if a change of scenery will work some magic. If I was Jerry Manuel, I’d give Putz the 9th and give Rodriguez the 8th, but only time will tell I suppose.
Overall: +104 runs
About 91-71.
Florida Marlins:
C: John Baker (+5 runs, +0 runs)
Baker is pretty adept as an OBP centered player. He certainly showed he could do that, now all that’s left is to see if he can cut down on the K rate. Overall +20 runs or +2 wins.
1B: Jorge Cantu (+12 runs, -5 runs)
Cantu showed some serious pop last year. Something he hasn’t shown consistently since 2005. He’s a plus offensive player to be sure, but the defense certainly leaves something to be desired. Overall+27 runs or about +3 wins.
2B: Dan Uggla (+24 runs, -5 runs)
Looks to me like a Jeff Kent type player through and through. Glove is a bit of a liability, but the power is there. Again, strikeouts are a concern, but only if that BB% (~12%) comes down. Overall +47 runs or about +5 wins.
SS: Hanley Ramirez (+46 runs, -1 runs)
Easily top 3 shortstops in the game offensively, I’d actually probably put him at the top of the list right now. Offensive star, defense is not terrible, but slightly below average. Overall +75 runs or about +8 wins.
3B: Dallas McPherson (+30 runs, +0 runs)
Funny how a player can be a top prospect, get injured, disappear, and reemerge all of the sudden with 42 homers, huh? He’s probably not going to repeat that, and there is a strong “fluke” label in my mind, but he could easily put 20+ out, and have a line similar to .250/.320/.400 or higher. Overall +25 runs or about +3 wins.
LF: Cody Ross (+8 runs, +10 runs)
Perhaps one of the rarest commodities on the Marlins: someone better defensively than offensively. Again, he probably won’t put up the power numbers his did last season, but I look for the OPS+ to stay about the same. Overall, +38 runs, or about 4 wins.
CF: Cameron Maybin (+0 runs, +0 runs)
Tools, tools, tools. Maybin’s got them, but he hasn’t been able to turn them into numbers yet. Abysmal strikeout rate for a center fielder greatly diminishes his overall value, but still, I’ll give him credit and list him as average to above. Overall +9 runs or +1 win.
RF: Jeremy Hermida (-1 runs, -5 runs)
Good power, no discipling, low numbers nearly all the way across the board. Often seems out of position in right, but may ultimately be considered an average fielder. Overall +4 runs, or +0 wins.
SP: Ricky Nolasco (+10)
Looked really good last year to be sure. Key to success for him is going to be maintaining the control he showed somewhat out of nowhere last year.
SP: Josh Johnson (+5)
Could be the secret ace of this staff if he puts up a full season of production on pace with last year. Problem is, he hasn’t stayed healthy save for one season.
SP: Chris Volstad (+5)
Another potential ace in the making. Has the stuff, and has shown great promise so far, and delivered on it too. May see a spike in ERA when people start to figure him out, but how he bounces back may end up defining him.
SP: Anibal Sanchez (+0)
I believe I’m repeating myself when I say tools, tools, tools. Has to stay healthy, but I think he can be a solid above average starter.
SP: Andrew Miller (+5)
May not be the star people once thought he was, but has definitely shown some serious ability. Problem is, he actually looked better last year than he has his entire career, so I’m afraid he may actually decline somewhat.
Bullpen:
M. Lindstrom (+0)
L. Nunez (+0)
L. Kensing (-5)
R. Pinto (-10)
S. Proctor (-15)
B. Badenhop (-5)
J. Delgado (-15)
E. De La Cruz (+0)
R. Tucker (-10)
Overall:
Clearly a team built around offense, the Marlins should have no problem scoring runs this season. However, bullpen issues, as well as defensive weaknesses may ultimately doom the South Beach team, but one thing is for sure, they can hit.
Overall about +71 runs, 88-74.
Philadelphia Phillies:
C: Carlos Ruiz(-16 runs, -4 runs)
Not a whole lot to say here. Not good. Not good at all. +0 wins.
1B: Ryan Howard (+20 runs, +0 runs)
Not a whole lot to say here either. Still has the power, still strikes out, still walks a lot. An elite hitter when he’s on, his number have slipped each of the past two seasons, which may be a warning sign. Overall +31 runs, or about 3 wins.
2B: Chase Utley (Marcus Giles) (+34 runs, +17 runs/-14 runs, -5 runs)
I’m going to assume here that if Utley is hurt that Giles gets the playing time, but let’s just say it’s not even close to a good trade off. Simply put, Utley is elite in almost all facets of the game, and Giles is not. In fact, Utley was the second most valuable player in the NL last year, I wonder who the first was, (St. Louis-cough-first baseman-cough) Overall Utley is +79 runs, or about +8 wins.
SS: Jimmy Rollins(+13 runs, +5 runs)
Rollins has somewhat of an interesting season last year in that he improved his weighted OBP, walk rate, and struck out less often, however it could simply be a smaller sample size. Above average in both offensive and defensive prowess, he probably won’t improve too much. Overall +51 runs or +5 wins.
3B: Pedro Feliz (-9.0 runs, +5 runs)
Terrible hitter with absolutely zero plate discipline, but a decent fielder. The problem I see is that he may be the only one on the team that doesn’t fit the OBP centric mold. Overall +11 runs or +1 win.
LF: Raul Ibanez (+10 runs, -18 runs)
This is an absolutely puzzling move by the Phillies. They let Pat Burrell walk, and Ibanez is who they chose to sign instead. Burrell has been the third worst fielding outfielder in the league the past three years. Can you guess who number two is? That’s right, Ibanez, second only to sit-on-the-ball Manny in terms of worst fielding value. On top of that, Burrell is younger, probably only would have been marginally more expensive, and projects as +19 runs next year. We’ll see how it plays out. Overall 12.1 runs or +1 win.
CF: Shane Victorino (+11 runs, +5 runs)
Victorino is a guy who hits, plays good defense, and gets on base at an above average level. Has improved every year so far, and I look for that trend to continue for another couple of years. Overall +37 runs, or about +4 wins.
RF: Jayson Werth (+5 runs, +10 runs)
At almost 30, Werth finally delivered on much of the hype surrounding him. I have some doubts as to whether he can keep the numbers that high next year, but I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. Overall, +27 runs, or about +3 wins.
SP: Cole Hamels (+20)
Simply put, he’s a stud. He’ll keep putting up good number next year too.
SP: Brett Myers (+10)
Wow, any time I see a guy struggling on my team from now on, I’m going to be the first to advocate sending him down for 5 starts and going from there. The difference in Myers pre and post demotion are marked, but regardless, he still has a FIP over 4.50. What does that tell you? He’s a hard thrower who either strikes people out, or gives up a LOT of runs.
SP: Jamie Moyer (+5)
He had a spectacular season last year-at age 45. He may well be in for a rough year.
SP: Joe Blanton (+5)
Good, but not great stuff. An old favorite of mine, Blanton will eat more innings than steaks, but that adjusted ERA is consistently going to sit around 4.25-4.75.
SP: Kyle Kendrick (-10)
His ERA last season was 5.49, his FIP was 5.55. Anytime those numbers are so high and close you have to cringe. Showed some promise in the minors, but he’s going to have to adjust, and quickly.
Bullpen:
B. Lidge (+15)
He’s back to his dominant form, and all signs point to that trend continuing.
R. Madson (+0)
J. Romero (-5)
C. Condrey (+0)
C. Durbin (+0)
S. Eyre (+5)
Was the victim of quite a few of Burrell’s errors, and it shows, but I can’t see him putting up another sub 3 FIP with that flyball percentage.
J. Happ (-10)
Phillie fans better hope he gets a starting job, because he was horrid out of the pen.
J. Bisenius (-10)
M. Zagurski (-15)
Walk rate is way too high for a strikeout rate that low, doesn’t help that he was lit up before he got hurt.
Overall: +94 runs, about 90-72.
I am averaging out the impact of Giles potentially being in the lineup for a good period of time, but still factored in the impact that Utley would have. The Phillies offensively look really good in places, and not so much in others. Outside of Lidge, the bullpen is missing consistency and longevity, which are major concerns for me. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the bullpen was their downfall.
Next up: The NL Central
I fucking hate the Yankees!!! Having said that, my team is the Brewers!! I have loved them through thick and thin, and even got to see them play Pittsburgh last fall, when it was pretty much do or die!!! The feeling in the Miller Park was electric!! AWESOME!! Having said that, I don't know how well they are going to do as they got shit hammered with a lot of the starting staff gone (Sheets and C.C.). They haven't made a lot of progress in that regard, but they finally have a pretty good closer in Hoffman. I remember shitting bricks when Torres came out to close!! You know they are going to put up lots of runs, so if they can get a bit more pitching, we should be ok!!
member979979
Closed Account
Recent news: Dodgers offer 1yr deal for $25 Million. Manny rejects.
Are the Dodgers out of their mind? How is that worth it on their end? Do they actually expect to win the World Series this year?
Why not just tell Manny to fuck off, and use that 25 million to buy a bundle of free agents?
Are the Dodgers out of their mind? How is that worth it on their end? Do they actually expect to win the World Series this year?
Why not just tell Manny to fuck off, and use that 25 million to buy a bundle of free agents?
broderic_randal
Closed Account
bluejays?
Skyraider22
The One and Only Big Daddy
Being a Dodger fan I understand where you are coming from but at the same time Manny did help the team out I don't think one more year with the Dodgers will hurt Manny or the Dodgers they have the money and it is only one year we have already lost Kent to retirement.We need some power somewhere this already looks like a 80 or 81 wins team and that is not good I'm hoping for more wins and if Manny can help give him the 25 million but we still need more help
Manny quitting on Boston lastyear before he got traded really messed his stock up.
Haha, he better stop being picky and play for whoever gives him a deal, or he isn't going to be playing at all. Noone wants his ass, including myself. Noone will give him over a year contract because if he gets unhappy he stops playing. I will never forget his game last year against the Yanks. 2 on with 1 out in the 9th vs. Rivera, both runners were in scoring position, and Boston was down by 1. Rivera throws 3 straight down the middle, and Manny never lifts his bat from his shoulder. Yankees go on to win(worked out well for me but it was still awful). But come on, who wants to put up with that shit?
Skyraider22
The One and Only Big Daddy
This could be a sign for all Dodger fans maybe this is a good sign we need the hitting power but at that cost I would love to have him but at the same time it is time for him to grow up a little bit he is 35 or 36 thake the money and play you don't have the best rep around right now.
I agree. Last fall's honeymoon is long over. Even if Manny signs he'll have a chip on his shoulder, and we've all seen how that can turn out.
I don't like Dunn, he strikes out too damn much. Anybody else left out there that has power and isn't a strikeout machine?
Historically, players who have a high SLG% and who hit for a lot of "traditional" power (HRs) have a correlated high strikeout rate. Simply put, people who tend to hit for more power usually swing harder, and miss more often. Those who don't strikeout much and hit for a great deal of power are normally considered anomalous.
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