Iowa Caucus results in

Romney should win New Hampshire. If Huntsman doesn't do well in N.H. he'll probably drop out. He punted Iowa. Bachmann's demise probably helps Santorum. Paul doesn't have a chance due to his loony toons foreign policy.
 
Romney, Paul, and Perry have the cash to stick this out for a while. Huntsman, Gingrich, and Santorum don't seem to. By the end of January (IA, NH, SC, FL), we could conceivably be down to a 3-man race.

Romney was always in this for a long-run. Paul has his base. Perry's got the cash still too. Santorum's Iowa rise probably won't carry him to big wins in other states. Huntsman was never "THE" guy, he's always seemed to be single-digit in the polls. I don't think he'll get the spike in interest that everyone from Bachmann to Cain to Santorum got. Gingrich - he's low on the dolla dolla bills y'all, though I think he's still got some support out there, but maybe not enough to really sustain him.


At this point, I can't really see this going ****** March. I think Romney will have this even more secure by then than he does now.

(I've based this stuff on general trends I notice from all the media I take in, so if anybody has other views/info/numbers, please share. I'm open to it :) )

And this season has been freaking nuts, so things can of course change somewhat wildly.
 
The right-wing base just can't seem to accept Romney....he's just too liberal. Hence, the backlash support for a candidate like Santorum who, as we all know, has absolutely ZERO chance of being elected. Ditto Ron Paul. In the end, most republicans will hold their nose and vote for Romney for the singular reason that he isn't Obama and he's the only one who has even a remote chance of defeating him.
 
You guys keep insisting on dismissing Ron Paul. Much, I might add, like the dismissive attitudes toward a certain candidate four years ago.

Whatever support Bachmann had can easily shift to Paul. The repubs who are as shocked at Santorums surprise finish as I am could rally to him. The repubs who don't want a latter day rehash of the Spanish Inquisition and Salem Witch Trials could rally. And there are plenty who see the writing on the wall with Gingrich and Perry, who won't switch to Romney.

You're counting eggs, and calling them chickens.
 
The right-wing base just can't seem to accept Romney....he's just too liberal. Hence, the backlash support for a candidate like Santorum who, as we all know, has absolutely ZERO chance of being elected. Ditto Ron Paul. In the end, most republicans will hold their nose and vote for Romney for the singular reason that he isn't Obama and he's the only one who has even a remote chance of defeating him.

exactly
a spot on analysis
 
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