[2/2] The FOFFL after Ten (10) Weeks, Four (4) To Go in the Regular Season
The Two (2) Spots "Up For Grabs" Among Six (6) Teams
The more exciting and more probable outcomes lie in the remaining two (2) 6-4 teams and the four (4) 5-5 teams. There are several direct match-ups that could result in a direct, or possibly direct + point tie-breaker for the remaining playoff spots.
5-5 69er's: The best of the rest, but inconsistent and no influence on outcome
What can you say about a team that scores 135 or under most of the time, but then has record weeks around 200? Yes, ironically, the league's third best scoring team is a .500 team, the 69er's. Their inconsistency has been their worst enemy, even though several predicted them to win-it-all before the season started. They even edge out The Phenomenal Chris in points, who are 6-4. Even more coincidentally is the scoring potential of these two teams, who are the only two in the FOFFL to ever break the magical 200 points -- over 204 and 212, respectively. And both the 69er's and The Phenominal Chris each have both Sirius and the CKB in their last four (4) games. So lock them in for at least 8-6 finishes at a minimum.
Unfortunately for the 69er's, they have no remaining influence on the outcome of 6-4 teams. They lose the direct tie-breaker to The Phenominal Chris who they went 0-1 against (no second game), although they did just beat Tubuler's Team and split a 1-1 direct record, with a clear point-based tie-breaker advantage. Their best bet to make the playoffs is to watch Tubuler's Team lose under the league's most difficult season schedule, and especially these last four (4) weeks. If the 69er's "take care of business" themselves, they're not far from controlling their own destiny -- even if their influence isn't direct on the 6-4 teams.
Their bench is loaded with performers, which put them at odds with their starters. Peyton Manning was an ideal draft, but he's been inconsistent and has fewer points than backup Philip Rivers. LaDainian Tomlinson shows up one week then -- poof -- gone the next. Reggie Bush was a chance pick, but one that turned out very well for most weeks. T.J. Houshmandzadeh gets it done most of the weeks though, and Laveranues Coles is not bad either. There is just so much talent on the 69er's, even kicker Stephen Gostkowski is a league leader with only two 40-49 missed (no 50+ attempts), but all the other positions can be a heartburn for the 69er's staff every week when it comes to roster-time.
At least the 69er's should "get it done" against Sirius and The CKB over the next two weeks, which brings their destiny down to winning against a beatable Jasonz and Baill Innneraroa, if they produce. The rest falls on The Phenomenal Chris losing two more games than them, and Tubuler's Team losing at least one more. The latter is definitely possible, even the Tube's difficult schedule to close out the season (let alone the season itself).
6-4 The Phenomenal Chris: Best chance to clinch a playoff spot third
As aforementioned under the 69er's, The Phenomenal Chris have the top score of the season so far, a favorable schedule to complete their season and the best record to finish right into the playoffs (excluding the Raiders and Maniacs, of course). Three (3) of their four (4) losses have been dogs -- twice under 100 and another time under 120. Granted, in all those weeks, their opponents scored between 142 and around 166, so it was a good week to lose, but still they are two (2) games back from the leaders because of it.
The Johnson brothers have been getting it done for The Phenominal Chris, Andrew Johnson at wide out and Chris Johnson at running back, scoring 175 and over 150, respectively, thus far. Owen Daniels has been a surprise tight-end and Steve Slaton as an excelling back when Houston doesn't tank (along with Andrew Johnson), while DeAngelo Williams can be a great option against favorable defenses. From there, the choices get more difficult, although there's plenty of talent. Hines Ward rounds out some solid scoring on various weeks, although the QB option of Jason Campbell isn't much when Kyle Orton is injured. On the defense, Patrick Willis gets his arms down for the tackles and gets his arms up for the pass deflections near the line, to the tune of breaking the century mark for a defensive player (extremely rare). Quite ironically sack leader LaMarr Woodley threw the The Chris' own Jason Campbell hard to the turf in Week 10, Campbell's head slamming into the ground, which would only complicate the questions at QB for The Chris had he joined Orton on the injury list.
The Chris can set the stage for a 2nd place finish in the regular season if they can take down the Matsugane Maniacs in Week 11. Taking down Tubuler's Team in Week 12 would also secure their loss in a tie-breaker, leaving no dout with only Sirius and The CKB left. The destiny of the regular season for the Chris is definitely in their own hands, for them to win or piss it away on their own.
6-4 Tubuler's Team: The most difficult schedule in the league
In the FOFFL, every team plays six (6) teams twice, and three (3) teams once. In the case of Tubuler's Team and the Matsugane Maniacs, neither of them play either Sirius or The CKB more than once. While the Maniacs also miss out on a second match against the 3rd best scoring 69er's, Tubuler's Team only misses Baill Inneraora the second time around, so they edge out the Maniacs for most difficult schedulein the league. And they get to finish off the season against with three out of four games against the top three teams, who are #1, #2 and #4 in scoring. Not helping matters is that the Tubes themselves are #6 in scoring, the bottom half of the league that is averaging less than 135 points/game.
Larry Fitzgerald at wide out and John Carney in the kicking game seem to be the only consistently high production on the team, althought he defense is stout largely all-around. The injury to Tony Romo really put a clamp on the offensive scoring of both Tubuler's Team and, correspondingly, the Matsugane Maniacs, in symbiosis, but we'll see if Romo's return in Week 11 will bring them (and the Maniacs) back to greatness. Solid performances do come from Matt Jones and DeSean Jackson at wide out, with Michael Turner's ground pounding being a major contributor to why Atlanta continues to dominate. Earnest Graham had his performances, especially receiptions, but he's sharing too much time to rely on. Most of the Tubes production reduction could be due to the lack of a solid TE to the QB on some weeks as well.
Unless Romo dominates and everyone else is consistent, Tubuler's Team should be aiming to go 3-1 -- 2 out of 3 wins against Chris, Raiders or Maniacs -- to secure a playoff spot. With the 69er's having an easy schedule to finish the season, it's unlikely 2-2 will cut it, as the 69er's -- if they go 3-1 -- will win the direct versus tie-breakers. Although they are in control of their own destiny like The Phenomenal Chris, their task is far, far more difficult than nearly all other teams. Even the Maniacs have their record to fall back on with the less than easy finale, whereas the Tubes are 2 games back with the 69er's on their heels.
5-5 Baill Inneraora: Solid performances in their last five (5), but no cakewalk left
A big surprise in the league as of late has been the scoring of Baill Inneraora. They are averaging around 145 points/week the last five (5) games, versus some 20-25 points less the same number of weeks to start the season. Although they've basically only flipped a loss versus win, to bring themselves back to 0.500, they did beat Tubuler's Team and played respectable against the Raiders and The Phenomenal Chris. The 1-1 against Tubuler's Team gives them a chance to win the point tie-breaker, along with the schedule the Tubes have left.
Working in Baill's favor is that they can "swat down" all the other 0.500 teams -- Deadskins, Jasonz and 69er's. They'd then have the direct versus over the Deadskins and then the points over Jasonz, leaving on the 69er's. If the 69er's also lose to Jasonz, then Baill could find itself in the playoffs if the Tubes send themselves down. So they have to finish at least 3-1 and see Tubuler's Team take some losses, although if they find a way to beat the Matsugane Maniacs and go 4-0, that would work even far better.
Baill is deep at RB, Ronnie Brown, Brian Westbrook and Thomas Jones, all solid options on most weeks, although sometimes roster decisions can hurt. Drew Brees is getting it done as starting QB, with Brett Favre as his backup. The receiving core has been inconsistent and mediocre, with all five (5) totalling just over 100 points, but not much to rely on when it comes to scheduling. Kellen Winslow is what you'd expect out of a standard, producing Tight End, and the same can be said for Rian Lindell in the kicking game. The leaders on the defense are making tackles, Gary Brackett upfront and Yeremiah Bell in the secondary.
All-in-all, if the receivers are started when they produce, Baill can win, and handling, thanx to the solid production elsewhere. But the problem is lining up those receivers on their better days, and why Baill has varied in the past. But of all the 5-5 teams over these last few weeks, their scoring has been some of the best. Let's hope that happens when they face the Maniacs and 69er's to finish off the season, and get at least a 3-1 (if not 4-0) to remove some doubt.
5-5 deadskins: The opportunity is slim, but there, but tie-breakers are not
The Deadskins are close to the .500 team in the worst position. They lose point tie-breakers to their 1-1 split with The 6-4 Phenomenal Chris, 1-1 split (assuming they beat them in Week 13) 6-4 Tubuler's Team, a direct versus loss against the 69er's who they face only once and it's unlikely they'd catch the point differential with a 1-1 split assuming they win this coming Week 11) against 5-5 Baill Inneraora. They are close to having to "win out" to make statement for their chances, although delivering Ls to Baill Innoraora and Tubuler's Team would definitely be a good finish. They should take Sirius in Week 14 and a 3-4 win finish does make it possible at least, but other things must fall-in-place -- although the Maniacs going 1-3 does give them the tie-breaker there too (if we really want to play "what ifs?").
Averaging under 130 points/game really hurts. Starting players who underproduce and benching those who overproduce on various weeks hurts as well. The defensive scoring is definitely near the bottom of the league, and other than maybe Marshawn Lynch, the RBs are either sharing time or producing little. The biggests strength, including going forward, is Jay Cutler. Throwing to Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall and the rest of the Denver crew is really making for both career and NFL-wide season highlights, and that could continue in the Deadskin's favor. If the receiving core could produce consistently, which Lee Evans, Wes Walker, Vincent Jackson and Lance Moore -- despite their not being uber-marque names -- are actually capable of, the Deadskins can kick ass. They did it in a surprise upset of the Maniacs in Week 3, and they produced 150 against The Phenomenal Chris just last week.
They have at least one win planned for Sirius to finish the season. If they take care of Baill next week, they could be in more control. Another upset of the Maniacs shouldn't be expected, but would not be unheard of, and Tubuler's Team could find with a L if the Deadskins do better than they usually do. Facing reality, the Deadskins are good for 125 or less in all weeks but two (2), and that's probably going to give them a 2-2 finish at the most. .500 would be respectable, but nowhere near a playoff berth.
5-5 jasonz: The opportunity is there, scoring is up, but things have to fall
Coincidentally, Jasonz faces neither The Phenominal Chris nor Tubuler's Team more than once. While they took a L against Chris, they did manage a decent W against the Tubes. They also have a win against Baill and the 69er's, facing both again in Week 12 and 13, respectively, which would send both of those .500 teams back and give them the all-important, undisputed 2-0 direct versus tie-breakers. Week 11 is a definite against The CKB, especially how Jasonz has been scoring as of late. Only the Raiders may keep them from going 4-0.
Of course, an 8-6 or 9-5 finish relies on the 69er's getting more losses, as well as other things falling outside their control -- like the Tubes dropping their hard games, possibly a few others. It's clearly a better set of opportunities for Jasonz than the Deadskins, although the door is closing. They will not win any point tiebreakers with the league's 3rd worst scoring, worst of the .500+ teams (yeah, only above those two-you-know-who). But the scoring in the last two (2) Weeks have been extremely impressive, and could have bested the league leaders.
Jasonz has always had talen on the offensive side of the ball. Kurt Warner is the man at QB. Reggie Wayne has utterly displaced Marvin Harrison at Indy. Andrian Peterson rarely has a bad week with Brandon Jacobs is also in the running duo. Tony Gonzalez is the TE everyone wants. The offense is largely there and can win. The problem has been the defense -- missing some at times -- as well as the over-reliance on a single defensive team. In any case, defensive on their own is the league worst of anyone .500+, by far. No real way to put it. They should change out half of their defense at a minimum.
There you have it, they've gotta beat who they should, and hope against the Raiders with everything else falling into place. It's not looking good, but there is always chance for Jasonz.
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