Jagger69
Three lullabies in an ancient tongue
This is extremely interesting from my viewpoint because it points out how much more polarized (I actually didn't think it was possible) the republican party is becoming. Charlie Crist was very nearly McCain's running mate in 2008 (I would have seriously considered voting for him had he chosen Crist instead of Wasilla Sarah) and was an extremely popular moderate republican governor in Florida. He was running for the US Senate as a republican in a primary race against former FL House speaker and tea-partier Marco Rubio. All the polls showed him losing badly to Rubio. Interestingly however, polled as an independent, Crist beats both Rubio and democratic candidate Kendrick Meek in a general election! Consequently, yesterday Crist made the decision to leave the republican party and run without party afiliation. I'm betting (and hoping) he'll win. If he does, it is a victory for those of us who see moderation as the key to moving the nation forward, not extremism (either right or left). Go Charlie!!!
Charlie Crist's independent Senate run poses key dilemmas for GOP
Thu Apr 29, 6:12 pm ET
Today's announcement from Florida Gov. Charlie Crist that he's running as an independent candidate in the Florida senate race came as no great surprise. Nearly every poll showed him losing badly to his conservative primary challenger, Marco Rubio.
But Crist's move does pose some tougher long-term questions for today's GOP. Can Republican moderates withstand the pressure of similar challenges from activists on the insurgent tea-party right? And if that answer is "no," how will Republicans fare in general-election ballots, where centrists and independents often supply the margin of victory in hard-fought battles between the major parties?
Just two years ago, Crist was a popular moderate governor who was on John McCain's short list of possible running mates in the presidential campaign. And when he announced his senate candidacy that year, he was widely regarded as a shoo-in.
That's all changed with the rise of Rubio — a former Florida House Speaker closely allied with the tea party movement. The simple numbers make Crist's announcement look like an inevitability: Recent polls have shown Crist trailing Rubio by more than 20 points in a head-to-head primary race. But in a three-way race among himself, Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the presumptive Democratic nominee, Crist places first.
A divided state GOP?
But other numbers are much more complicated. As an independent, Crist won't be able to harness the legions of state Republican volunteers, and the largess of the Florida GOP's campaign arm, in a major statewide race certain to cost millions of dollars.
What's more, Crist will likely to have to return some of the funds he's already raised as a Republican candidate. Texas Sen. John Cornyn — head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — told Crist that he'll be seeking reimbursement of funds his own political action committee already directed to Crist's GOP campaign.
"Once you leave the party, you can't come back," was how Cornyn — a former Crist supporter — reportedly put it to the wayward Crist.
One nonfinancial advantage Crist will be counting on in the reconfigured race is much greater name recognition among the Florida electorate than either Rubio or Meek enjoy. Meek in particular may face steep hurdles in the general election, thanks to his limited profile outside his Miami district and the overall rightward shift in the electorate's mood. He certainly gained little to no publicity advantage in his bid for the Democratic nomination, becoming the first Senate candidate in state history to secure his place on the ballot by petition.
The race's new math
The winning candidate in the three-way contest will need to secure 34 percent of the vote. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in Florida by more than 650,000, so if Meek can merely hold onto his base, he's got an excellent shot. A similar scenario played out in last year's special election in New York's 23rd Congressional district, where a tea-party insurgent drove the GOP's handpicked nominee out of the race, and the seat, which had been in Republican hands since 1873, went to Democratic candidate Bill Owens.
Since conservative electoral support alone won't be enough to win the race, Rubio supporters are hoping that the wave of antigovernment anger will spill over in independent territory in sufficient numbers to push him over the top. Crist supporters, meanwhile, are hoping that the state's independents will rally behind their man, while also picking off some Republican and Democratic moderates put off by the fringes of each party.
This scramble for unaffiliated voters in the middle of the spectrum could also increase the odds that the general election campaign will get ugly. Crist and Rubio already got plenty personal in the early stages of their primary fight, with Crist charging that Rubio — who was recently implicated in a state GOP credit-card-spending scandal — used state funds to pay for back-waxings. Rubio, meanwhile, can be expected to exploit Crist's earlier reassurances that he wouldn't bolt for the sake of an independent run at the Senate seat, making it seem like the governor is a mere political opportunist.
Whatever develops between now and November, the Sunshine State — home to many a winter circus operation — may well prove instrumental in bringing down the stakes of Ronald Reagan's "big tent" vision of the Republican party.
Link is here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20100429/ts_ynews/ynews_ts1862
Charlie Crist's independent Senate run poses key dilemmas for GOP
Thu Apr 29, 6:12 pm ET
Today's announcement from Florida Gov. Charlie Crist that he's running as an independent candidate in the Florida senate race came as no great surprise. Nearly every poll showed him losing badly to his conservative primary challenger, Marco Rubio.
But Crist's move does pose some tougher long-term questions for today's GOP. Can Republican moderates withstand the pressure of similar challenges from activists on the insurgent tea-party right? And if that answer is "no," how will Republicans fare in general-election ballots, where centrists and independents often supply the margin of victory in hard-fought battles between the major parties?
Just two years ago, Crist was a popular moderate governor who was on John McCain's short list of possible running mates in the presidential campaign. And when he announced his senate candidacy that year, he was widely regarded as a shoo-in.
That's all changed with the rise of Rubio — a former Florida House Speaker closely allied with the tea party movement. The simple numbers make Crist's announcement look like an inevitability: Recent polls have shown Crist trailing Rubio by more than 20 points in a head-to-head primary race. But in a three-way race among himself, Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the presumptive Democratic nominee, Crist places first.
A divided state GOP?
But other numbers are much more complicated. As an independent, Crist won't be able to harness the legions of state Republican volunteers, and the largess of the Florida GOP's campaign arm, in a major statewide race certain to cost millions of dollars.
What's more, Crist will likely to have to return some of the funds he's already raised as a Republican candidate. Texas Sen. John Cornyn — head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — told Crist that he'll be seeking reimbursement of funds his own political action committee already directed to Crist's GOP campaign.
"Once you leave the party, you can't come back," was how Cornyn — a former Crist supporter — reportedly put it to the wayward Crist.
One nonfinancial advantage Crist will be counting on in the reconfigured race is much greater name recognition among the Florida electorate than either Rubio or Meek enjoy. Meek in particular may face steep hurdles in the general election, thanks to his limited profile outside his Miami district and the overall rightward shift in the electorate's mood. He certainly gained little to no publicity advantage in his bid for the Democratic nomination, becoming the first Senate candidate in state history to secure his place on the ballot by petition.
The race's new math
The winning candidate in the three-way contest will need to secure 34 percent of the vote. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in Florida by more than 650,000, so if Meek can merely hold onto his base, he's got an excellent shot. A similar scenario played out in last year's special election in New York's 23rd Congressional district, where a tea-party insurgent drove the GOP's handpicked nominee out of the race, and the seat, which had been in Republican hands since 1873, went to Democratic candidate Bill Owens.
Since conservative electoral support alone won't be enough to win the race, Rubio supporters are hoping that the wave of antigovernment anger will spill over in independent territory in sufficient numbers to push him over the top. Crist supporters, meanwhile, are hoping that the state's independents will rally behind their man, while also picking off some Republican and Democratic moderates put off by the fringes of each party.
This scramble for unaffiliated voters in the middle of the spectrum could also increase the odds that the general election campaign will get ugly. Crist and Rubio already got plenty personal in the early stages of their primary fight, with Crist charging that Rubio — who was recently implicated in a state GOP credit-card-spending scandal — used state funds to pay for back-waxings. Rubio, meanwhile, can be expected to exploit Crist's earlier reassurances that he wouldn't bolt for the sake of an independent run at the Senate seat, making it seem like the governor is a mere political opportunist.
Whatever develops between now and November, the Sunshine State — home to many a winter circus operation — may well prove instrumental in bringing down the stakes of Ronald Reagan's "big tent" vision of the Republican party.
Link is here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20100429/ts_ynews/ynews_ts1862
