Inside the Pentagon, intense planning is underway. The US Joint Chiefs are planning a strike on Yongbyon, North Korea's main nuclear separation facility, and other key targets involved with building atomic weapons. US intellignce has confirmed North Korea is refining rods into weapons-grade and there is evidence North Korea has begun to develop a stockpile or at least the facilities to maintain stockpiles of at least a dozen weapons. The US Navy has moved two carrier groups into the region in advance of a strike and constant American overhead flights keep sniffing for signs of nuclear material.
China protests American activity and other nations balk at the US' over-reaction. About the only support the US has is from Japan and South Korea. It is clear from the South Korean government that "engagement" has failed and the continued "appeasement" of North Korea has no chance of diffusing the situation.
During last second negotations, North Korea is promised billions of dollars of aid per year -- as well as modern nuclear technology to build an efficient, fission reactor for power. In return, North Korea will suspend all activity at Yongbyon and pledge to never develop nuclear weapons or transfer the technology to any other country. That one fateful day in 1994, the Clinton administration pulls off an outstanding coup to keep North Korea in-line -- all at the same time, putting forth the greatest and most costly foreign aid package to date.
Five years pass by before North Korea becomes a Clinton administration issue again. One year after passing two executive orders giving sweeping powers to the FBI and international wiretapping rights to the NSA without prior court order, the Clinton administration comes across intelligence that North Korea is not abiding by the terms of the agreement. Many facilities believed shut down are active again, and most capabilities at Yongbyon have moved elsewhere. In reality, Yongbyon is nothing more than a partially-enriched uraninum mine should North Korea decide to take off the UN seals for additional weapons and not necessary to continuing their desire. And to make matters worse, North Korea has been transfering missile technology it has gained from China to both Pakistan and Iran.
At this point, the Clinton administration is rather taken back. It suddenly realized it had no options. Just a year earlier, the Clinton administration was unable to sway the American public to consider an invasion of Iraq -- a country that lost a war and the US had legal justification to invade since it had proven in the UN Security Countil in 1996 that Iraq had not been abiding, and just kicked out inspectors guaranteed under its the terms of surrender. North Korea, while guilty of past aggression and UN resolutions to forcibly remove them as well, did not lose a war or agree to terms of surrender -- unlike Iraq.
At the same time, there was the question that even if North Korea didn't develop weapons, they could sell them for much needed cash. If the Clinton administration called North Korea out, and removed the tens of billions of dollars of aid, North Korea might actually start selling them to make up for it. It was a nightmare, especially since the US just gave North Korea more modern atomic fission technology for its power plant. So what could it do?
The Clinton administration also had bigger fish to fry. Al Quieda was the bigger target, and fighting Al Quieda was the bigger priority. Besides, Iraq might become an issue given the current intelligence. Besides, in the worst case, all North Korea would want is to extort more money from the US with the threat of nukes -- so the best way to avoid a bi-lateral audience was to ignore the intelligence. It would be something for Gore, or whomever the next President would be, to deal with. Especially with the new corporate scandles, questionable bookeeping and literally trillions upon trillions of dollars of phony wealth that was evaporating in the stock market. So now was not the time to engage the North Koreans who would only want more money in an already huge foreign aid budget and an economy where the surplus was already receding due to reduced corporate profits.
Plus, there was another avenue, China. North Korea didn't have the missiles to reach the mainland US, but they do China as much as Japan. The Clinton administration started to engage China, who would have far more influence versus the US. China was already getting lower petroleum rates than the US, and more and more countries saw China "under the radar" versus the US. They could be more effective and far question less. Especially since much of North Korea depended upon China anyway.
In his first eight months in office, W. didn't bother with North Korea, Iraq or anyone else. Not even 8 weeks in, the economy was in a recession, 5 of the last 6 quarters were negative growth and the layoffs were already starting, which would destroy 50% of the federal income as household income was dropping. By Q3, the surplus was no more and the US had no manuvering from a fiscal standpoint.
And to top all that, Tenet and other intelligence heads had guaranteed an Al Quieda attack any day since late June. As a result, every military installation was at code Bravo since July on-ward, inspecting vehicles at checkpoints, no matter how innocent-looking the civilian, and constant sweeps. Remote locations of the world were the least of Bush administration's concerns. The focus was on the next van raming through gates with bombs aboard or some organized act against domestic interests.
And then it happened. An immediate $400B impact to the economy -- the telecommunication hub of the city with the most fiscal flow and corporate HQs in the world -- trillions of dollars in secondary effects would follow. The Bush administration was completely unprepared for the action. The average American never thought of such either. We were dumbfounded and angry and confused and feeling stupid, all at the same time. But it was the change for the Bush administration.
Immediate boosts came to human intelligence from the Executive office -- find out everything about the world. Weeks after the Taliban briefings and the decision to go into Afganistan, with the support of NATO thanks almost solely to the British (I've always wondered if NATO would have supported without the help of Blair), W. sat down in November to learn about North Korea. He was shocked. Not only at the intelligence, but the fact that we were still paying North Korea -- and China had done nothing, even though the Clinton administration had made China aware of the same intelligence we had.
Bush didn't over-react. He sent in negotiators for immediate bilateral talks directly between the US and North Korea. In the very first meeting, after being presented with US intelligence, North Korea confessed to not honoring the 1994 agreement. And then, it came -- the demand for more money and materials beyond the 1994 agreement. And the North Koreans wanted additional technology for a nuclear reactor. At what point would North Koreans start transferring that technology out of the country like its missiles? Let alone the US federal budget was in no shape to increase foreign aid.
That's when the Bush administration decided it had enough. But how far could it go? North Korea hadn't lost a war, unlike Iraq. The US had no international justification at any time to go into North Korea since before the cease-fire -- a cease-fire that was not a surrender, unlike Iraq. There was only one option, to cut the aid. Not all of the aid -- food and small funds would still go -- but the aid would have to be cut, including an immediate halt to work on the light-water reactors. The next move was now left to North Korea -- abide by the 1994 agreement which we would continue to honor in return.
North Korea said no, leading to their inclusion in the infamous "Axis of Evil" a month and a half later.
Since then, North Korea has constantly pushed for bilateral talks. The US has constantly tried to involve China, trying to point out it's own follies in this matter, and that it cannot continue to support a regime that will only defy it. This is not Vietnam, who China supported but then defied and rebelled against Bejing because they merely wanted to be "left alone" -- like most others in Southeast Asia. This was a country pro-actively engaged in obtaining a nuclear weapon, with the means to kill hundreds of millions of Chinese far easier than the US -- something that can and will come to bit them, quite unlike the measly issues with Vietnam in comparison.
Furthermore, this is also about South Korea and Japan. The US has continued to make good on curbing South Korea's past interest in nuclear technology, and lived up to its part. Now China has failed on that, leaving the US to question. Furthermore, Japan now has a PM who is reconsidering pushing for the removal of the Japanese declaration and law against war in its own Constitution. Now most leaders in Japan know it's not in their interests to have nuclear weapons when China has more people and more land to sustain a conflict -- but their inaction on North Korea has made Japan wonder how much they can trust the Chinese anyway.
China protests American activity and other nations balk at the US' over-reaction. About the only support the US has is from Japan and South Korea. It is clear from the South Korean government that "engagement" has failed and the continued "appeasement" of North Korea has no chance of diffusing the situation.
During last second negotations, North Korea is promised billions of dollars of aid per year -- as well as modern nuclear technology to build an efficient, fission reactor for power. In return, North Korea will suspend all activity at Yongbyon and pledge to never develop nuclear weapons or transfer the technology to any other country. That one fateful day in 1994, the Clinton administration pulls off an outstanding coup to keep North Korea in-line -- all at the same time, putting forth the greatest and most costly foreign aid package to date.
Five years pass by before North Korea becomes a Clinton administration issue again. One year after passing two executive orders giving sweeping powers to the FBI and international wiretapping rights to the NSA without prior court order, the Clinton administration comes across intelligence that North Korea is not abiding by the terms of the agreement. Many facilities believed shut down are active again, and most capabilities at Yongbyon have moved elsewhere. In reality, Yongbyon is nothing more than a partially-enriched uraninum mine should North Korea decide to take off the UN seals for additional weapons and not necessary to continuing their desire. And to make matters worse, North Korea has been transfering missile technology it has gained from China to both Pakistan and Iran.
At this point, the Clinton administration is rather taken back. It suddenly realized it had no options. Just a year earlier, the Clinton administration was unable to sway the American public to consider an invasion of Iraq -- a country that lost a war and the US had legal justification to invade since it had proven in the UN Security Countil in 1996 that Iraq had not been abiding, and just kicked out inspectors guaranteed under its the terms of surrender. North Korea, while guilty of past aggression and UN resolutions to forcibly remove them as well, did not lose a war or agree to terms of surrender -- unlike Iraq.
At the same time, there was the question that even if North Korea didn't develop weapons, they could sell them for much needed cash. If the Clinton administration called North Korea out, and removed the tens of billions of dollars of aid, North Korea might actually start selling them to make up for it. It was a nightmare, especially since the US just gave North Korea more modern atomic fission technology for its power plant. So what could it do?
The Clinton administration also had bigger fish to fry. Al Quieda was the bigger target, and fighting Al Quieda was the bigger priority. Besides, Iraq might become an issue given the current intelligence. Besides, in the worst case, all North Korea would want is to extort more money from the US with the threat of nukes -- so the best way to avoid a bi-lateral audience was to ignore the intelligence. It would be something for Gore, or whomever the next President would be, to deal with. Especially with the new corporate scandles, questionable bookeeping and literally trillions upon trillions of dollars of phony wealth that was evaporating in the stock market. So now was not the time to engage the North Koreans who would only want more money in an already huge foreign aid budget and an economy where the surplus was already receding due to reduced corporate profits.
Plus, there was another avenue, China. North Korea didn't have the missiles to reach the mainland US, but they do China as much as Japan. The Clinton administration started to engage China, who would have far more influence versus the US. China was already getting lower petroleum rates than the US, and more and more countries saw China "under the radar" versus the US. They could be more effective and far question less. Especially since much of North Korea depended upon China anyway.
In his first eight months in office, W. didn't bother with North Korea, Iraq or anyone else. Not even 8 weeks in, the economy was in a recession, 5 of the last 6 quarters were negative growth and the layoffs were already starting, which would destroy 50% of the federal income as household income was dropping. By Q3, the surplus was no more and the US had no manuvering from a fiscal standpoint.
And to top all that, Tenet and other intelligence heads had guaranteed an Al Quieda attack any day since late June. As a result, every military installation was at code Bravo since July on-ward, inspecting vehicles at checkpoints, no matter how innocent-looking the civilian, and constant sweeps. Remote locations of the world were the least of Bush administration's concerns. The focus was on the next van raming through gates with bombs aboard or some organized act against domestic interests.
And then it happened. An immediate $400B impact to the economy -- the telecommunication hub of the city with the most fiscal flow and corporate HQs in the world -- trillions of dollars in secondary effects would follow. The Bush administration was completely unprepared for the action. The average American never thought of such either. We were dumbfounded and angry and confused and feeling stupid, all at the same time. But it was the change for the Bush administration.
Immediate boosts came to human intelligence from the Executive office -- find out everything about the world. Weeks after the Taliban briefings and the decision to go into Afganistan, with the support of NATO thanks almost solely to the British (I've always wondered if NATO would have supported without the help of Blair), W. sat down in November to learn about North Korea. He was shocked. Not only at the intelligence, but the fact that we were still paying North Korea -- and China had done nothing, even though the Clinton administration had made China aware of the same intelligence we had.
Bush didn't over-react. He sent in negotiators for immediate bilateral talks directly between the US and North Korea. In the very first meeting, after being presented with US intelligence, North Korea confessed to not honoring the 1994 agreement. And then, it came -- the demand for more money and materials beyond the 1994 agreement. And the North Koreans wanted additional technology for a nuclear reactor. At what point would North Koreans start transferring that technology out of the country like its missiles? Let alone the US federal budget was in no shape to increase foreign aid.
That's when the Bush administration decided it had enough. But how far could it go? North Korea hadn't lost a war, unlike Iraq. The US had no international justification at any time to go into North Korea since before the cease-fire -- a cease-fire that was not a surrender, unlike Iraq. There was only one option, to cut the aid. Not all of the aid -- food and small funds would still go -- but the aid would have to be cut, including an immediate halt to work on the light-water reactors. The next move was now left to North Korea -- abide by the 1994 agreement which we would continue to honor in return.
North Korea said no, leading to their inclusion in the infamous "Axis of Evil" a month and a half later.
Since then, North Korea has constantly pushed for bilateral talks. The US has constantly tried to involve China, trying to point out it's own follies in this matter, and that it cannot continue to support a regime that will only defy it. This is not Vietnam, who China supported but then defied and rebelled against Bejing because they merely wanted to be "left alone" -- like most others in Southeast Asia. This was a country pro-actively engaged in obtaining a nuclear weapon, with the means to kill hundreds of millions of Chinese far easier than the US -- something that can and will come to bit them, quite unlike the measly issues with Vietnam in comparison.
Furthermore, this is also about South Korea and Japan. The US has continued to make good on curbing South Korea's past interest in nuclear technology, and lived up to its part. Now China has failed on that, leaving the US to question. Furthermore, Japan now has a PM who is reconsidering pushing for the removal of the Japanese declaration and law against war in its own Constitution. Now most leaders in Japan know it's not in their interests to have nuclear weapons when China has more people and more land to sustain a conflict -- but their inaction on North Korea has made Japan wonder how much they can trust the Chinese anyway.
