I've been on vacation since December 17th, so I haven't posted or replied to posts in a while. Needless to say, a lot has happened since then and I am going to comment on some things:
First of all, anybody who said Luongo has been even a tad disappointing this year must be living in the Twilight Zone. He is top ten in the league in wins, save percentage, and goals against average. He is 21-12-1 with a .921 save percentage and a 2.25 goals against average. Those are excellent stats. And in his last 6 games he's let in a total of 9 goals. And get this, his 2.25 GAA would be the BEST of his career if he were to maintain it until the end of the year and his .921 SV% would be his second best. So if he's been disappointing this year, then I guess he's been atrocious the rest of his career, right?
That said, Brodeur is the starter for Team Canada and Luongo is the backup. There is no debate.
As for the national teams, Team Canada and Team Russia are both formidable, but Canada is the favourite, as always, because think about this for a second, do you really think that Denis Grebeshkov or Sergei Federov or about half of Team Russia would have had a snowball's chance in hell of making Team Canada? Obviously, Malkin, Datsyuk, Ovechkin, Semin, and Kovalchuk are amazing players and they give Russia a chance to win against any team, but it's all about depth. Our third and fourth lines are going to be 32489723498723 times better than any other teams', including Russia. As for defence, no one touches Team Canada, not even close. There are only three defencemen on any international roster who might have made Team Canada: Zdeno Chara of Slovakia, Andrei Markov of Russia, and MAYBE Nicklas Lidstrom of Sweden, but he's having a pretty poor season and he doesn't stack up against Team Canada's defencemen, not this year. Gonchar would've had no chance to make Team Canada, and it's true, so don't disagree. All of Canada's defencemen are COMPLETE players who can play as superstars in ANY situation. As for the goalies, we have the two best in the world and Fleury is no slouch himself, but I won't go so far as to say that no other nation's goaltenders even come close to ours. Team USA will have two great goaltenders in Thomas and Miller, the latter of which is having one of the best seasons in the league so far. Nabokov is good, and so is Bryzgalov, but Nabokov has a history of choking in important games. Kiprusoff is overrated and Niklas Backstrom is having an average season only. Lundqvist is great, but the Swedes had better hope he stays healthy.
Here's how it all breaks down:
Team Canada: the favourites and the best team, no doubt, but by no means unbeatable.
Team Russia: a close second to Canada, but nowhere near the depth. Incredible offensive firepower and really good team chemistry, but lacking severely defensively.
Team Sweden: defending gold medallists with very little pressure to repeat. Could make them a dangerous team. Roster is very complete.
Team USA: extremely underrated and disrepected. They could be better than Team Sweden, and I think they are. Their lack of experience may hurt them, but their defensive depth is second only to Canada and they have a roster complete with well-above average players.
Team Finland: pretty good team, but not great. Their top scorers have all seen better days.
Team Czech Republic: don't expect much. All of their players are way past their prime, including Jagr, who hasn't been playing against the world's top talent for a long time.
Team Slovakia: could upset some teams, if it weren't for their mediocre goaltending (and Halak sucks, trust me, don't be fooled into believing he's good, he's terrible) I would rank them ahead of the Czechs at this point. Depth is a big problem for them though.
I think the two best teams are Canada and Russia for sure, then the USA and Sweden, and then all the rest. I expect a Canada gold, but I always expect that, and a Russia silver, and a USA bronze. It's going to be a good tournament, that's for sure. Russia is better than ever and so is the USA, Canada has to really bare down and play focused and determined hockey if they're going to win gold.