Nuclear war and environmental collapse may permanently derail humanity’s progress, says Lee. The probability of catastrophe is rising, not falling. Even in humanity’s most recent population spike, an outlier is visible. Between 1600 and 1650, the human population stopped growing. A combination of severe climate change, a particularly brutal spell of the Little Ice Age, and sustained warfare battered Europe, keeping populations static and people miserable.
There’s no guarantee such things won’t happen again.