Jose Bautista blasts his 54th HR...

[ForumModeregulator]

so, what the hell this guy's most productive year was 07: 142 PA, .254 avg, with 15 hrs. The guy's highest HR count is 16 hrs in one season, and only has 113 hrs (including the 54) in his career. LAst year he only hit 13 HRs. In 4 FULL seasons he only hit a total of 74 HRs, and now this season hes at 54...

Is it truly an epic perfomance? Hes only 5'9" 195 lbs, and he definitely does not look like a roided out monster such as McGwire or Bonds...he really could have just found a fix in his swing...Or could it be that, rather in a game of averages and seemingly constant performance, is Jose Bautista flying under the PED radar? what do you think? Check his stats...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo02.shtml

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

He's an asshole for one thing. I don't believe in miracles.

 

[wolverine81]

Maybe he's trying really hard...to hide the PED's

 

[carfiguy]

I too, think it looks suspicious. I guess you have to say innocent until proven guilty, but with the history of PED's in MLB, its only natural to suspect something fishy is going on.

He does have a fairly high number of stikeouts this year, so maybe he's just swinging for the fences every at bat. :dunno:

 

[ForumModeregulator]

i just remember a guy named Brady Anderson that had very similar numbers to Bautista vehemently denied using, but it was pretty apparent he did...Anderson went 21, 13, 12, 16, 50, and then never hit more than 24 HRs in a season after...

Also since 2000, the only players to reach 50 HRS in a season: Bonds, A-Rod, David Ortiz, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Andruw Jones, Luis Gonzalez, Jim Thome, and Sammy Sosa. The only guy I can really say with certainty that didnt take some sort of PED is Jim Thome.

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

Brett Boone was another Brady Anderson.

 

[ForumModeregulator]

Brett Boone was another Brady Anderson.

The greatest HR derby contestant of all time...the '03 whiff was epic...

 

[Facetious]

Bautista: Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 20th round of the 2000 amateur draft.
Signed May 19, 2001. (All Transactions)
Debut: April 4, 2004 :hatsoff:

 

[PlasmaTwa2]

He's a Blue Jay, so all you drug-accusers can go fuck yourselves. :hatsoff:

 

[YumiYumi_1988]

It makes no sense at all. And cuz of the wacky nature of baseball where guys alternate great years with terrible ones, he'll probably hit 16 all of next year and get benched for his lackluster batting average.

 

[ForumModeregulator]

It makes no sense at all. And cuz of the wacky nature of baseball where guys alternate great years with terrible ones, he'll probably hit 16 all of next year and get benched for his lackluster batting average.

but thats the thing, players usually dont deviate that far from the career averages. Baseball is a game of averages...this guy has seen like a 300% + increase in homeruns in one season...that is VERY strange, and since that type of spike in a power stat is usually only seen in known cheaters...

 

[ForumModeregulator]

A Blue Jay, but hes from SANTO DOMINGO where plenty of players arguably come from a steroid rich environment, he could barely hit homeruns his short career and hes never been a homerun hitter. then he explodes. THERE is NO doubt that we are in the steroid era (the end hopefully). Every player that has attempted to do this, has been scrutinized by the media for doing so. We can not give this guy a free pass, so it has to be looked at now. Its sad because he could be legit, but a career bench to a hercules style MVP home run monster...

Im not sayin hes doin it, i just think that this can not be overlooked and rightfully deserves a talk. again, im not goin after him, and im not goin after the Blue Jays org, just something to look at...NOBODY just goes from 15 to 54+homers, unless hes a cheater in the steroid era. But all we can do is give him the benefit of the doubt no, and hope it holds up...

and in the end if sometime proof shows that he did get mixed up in the PEDs, baseball will sadly be back to square one with the battle against PEDS...

 

[D-rock]

but thats the thing, players usually dont deviate that far from the career averages.

Still with thousands of players over the decades the averages also say there will be a few people popping up from time to time that have seasons that are outliers. Fluke years either good or bad happen once in a while. Bautista is far from the first person to have a year that is different than his others, and he will be far from the last. I could point out a good and famous example with Roger Marris where he had one good year where he broke the single season home run record at the time and that year was an aberration compared to what he did in any other year of his career. He also played before steroids became prevalent in sports so it can happen just as a matter of chance.

 

[ForumModeregulator]

Still with thousands of players over the decades the averages also say there will be people popping up all the time that are outliers. Fluke years either good or bad happen once in a while. Bautista is far from the first person to have a year that is different than his others, and he will be far from the last. I could point out a good and famous example with Roger Marris where he had one good year where he broke the single season home run record at the time and that year was an aberration compared to what he did in any other year of his career. He also played before steroids became prevalent in sports so it can happen just as a matter of chance.

but your wrong here...if you study the trends and stats. The players who have had seasons like this, have been linked to PEDS...In the case of Roger Maris, he was a notable Homerun hitter and player of his era, along with hitting 39 HRs in the season prior to his 61. He was known for hitting long balls before his season of 61. Bautista, as previously stated was a career bench player before this magical season of his. I understand how statistics work, but in this case this type of deviation is much more than an outlier which can not be explained with such probability. If anything it proves that its statistically unnatural and such a low chance of this happening, which would indicate that something is way out of the ordinary.

 

[shayd]

I understand how statistics work, but in this case this type of deviation is much more than an outlier which can not be explained with such probability.

That is a fallacy. In the realm of statistics, there can be nothing "more than an outlier". If it doesn't fall into the group, it's an outlier by definition.

 

[ForumModeregulator]

That is a fallacy. In the realm of statistics, there can be nothing "more than an outlier". If it doesn't fall into the group, it's an outlier by definition.

okay my bad its not "more than an outlier" its an anomaly (or something like that), but my lack of statistical knowledge is totally irrelevant to my main point which was the fact that his performance is not just a random probable event.

 

[STDiva]

I drank his piss and it tasted delicious = no roids.

He'll get an extension and hit 19 HR's next year.

 

[Jagger69]

Stuff like this doesn't happen without some other factor being involved. I say he's got to be using some type of PED.

 

[allenk15]

Who fucking cares?

 

[shayd]

okay my bad its not "more than an outlier" its an anomaly (or something like that), but my lack of statistical knowledge is totally irrelevant to my main point which was the fact that his performance is not just a random probable event.

There exists no such thing as a random probably event. That is intrinsically against the nature of being random. If you want to say it's an outlier, it's an outlier (saying it's an anomaly is the exact same thing).