French 2022 presidential election ; April 10th-24th, 2022

On April 10th, 2022 France is gonna have the first round of its 2022 présidentia elections.
The 2nd round will happen on April 24th
(except if one candidate gets more than 50% of the votes but that's very unlikely.


The candidates are :

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- Emmanuel Macron ; The current president. He's seen à Center/Center-Right. More on the Right about Economy and Immigration but as well more on the Left on social issues (such as abortion, or LGBTQ rights) ; currently polling at 28%


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- Marine Lepen ; The runner-up in the previous election. Her opposers say she's Far-Right but to me it's more complicated than that. She's tough on immigration and social issues but also pretty much on the Left on Economy ; Currently polling at 16%


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- Jean-Luc Mélenchon ; He's Far-Left. Wether it's on the Economy, Immigration, social issues or whatever. Currently polling at 14%

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- Eric Zemmour ; A political analyst turned presidential candidate. He's as Far-Right as one can be. On Immigration, social issues, economy, he's Far-Right. To the point some call him "the french Trump". Currently polling at 10%


These are the 4 main candidates, those who get a chance to access the 2nd Round. but there's a total of 8 lesser candidates :

- Valerie Pécresse ; a moderate-right candidate. She's from the sam party that Sarkozy (and Chirac) was from but most of the voter who had voted for Sarkozy have chosen to vote for either Macron or Zemmour so she's polling at 8%
- Yannick Jadot ; From the Green Party. Moderate-Left on the economy, a bit more far-left on immigration and social issues. And off course, very much in favor of anti-global warming policies. Polling at 6%
- Anne Hidalgo ; Current Paris mayor and candidate from the sam party that Hollande (and Mitterrand) was from. She suffers from the very same probem that Pecresse suffers from : most of the former voters from her party are now voting either for Macron or for Mélenchon. And Hollande's lack of popularity made it even worse. She's polling at 3%

And there are 5 other candidate polling below 2%, 3 from the Far Left (Fabien Roussel, Philippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud, the later two being even more far-left than Mélenchon) one from the Far-Right (Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) and one (Jean Lasalle) who's very hard to label but says he's there for the people wo live in the countryside or in small towns.



If you think there are too many candidates (and this is directed mostly at our american fellows who are used to have an election with only two candidates), think of like this : The first round is like your primaries, except we do them all at the same time and every one can vote either to the democratic primary or the republican primary.
 
Like we discussed, I like the variety in the choices. Good balance between the exteremes and the moderates across the spectrum.
LePen seems interesting, from your analysis it sounds like she doesn't fit squarely in any particular box.

So who is your preference?
 
What is presidential campaigning like in France? Is it as toxic as other countries? Do you have debates?
 
Is Macron doing a good enough job that there's no reason to change leadership? If so voting for him might be the best decision. Do what is best for you and your country.
 
What is presidential campaigning like in France? Is it as toxic as other countries? Do you have debates?
Yeah, off course we have debates
Since 1974, there has been a debate between the 2 candidates qualified for the 2nd round. It's aired on the two main TV networks (one being public, the other being private) and each of the two networks have their own moderators on the set at the same time.

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This year's campaign was a bit unorthodox 'cause, being busy with the Russia/Ukraine issue, Macron almost did not campaigned.
There has been a few debates among the other candidates, sometime 1 on 1, sometimes with 4-6 candidates, rarely with all 12 candidates but aside from people who follow politics closely, not much people watched them (probably because political commentators and candidates mostly focused on immigration and security when people wanted to hear about economy, purchasing-power, environment, health, education, housing, etc...).
 

gmase

Nattering Nabob of Negativism
I've been seeing Le Pen's name in my newsfeed more the past couple days.
How about a pic?
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With Macron taking the lead on the Ukraine, a Le Pen victory would be be intriguing.

Her polling numbers seem to be ‘surging’ according to one account.
 
Indeed, her poll numbers are surging. A lot of Zemmour voters are actually joining her 'cause Zemmour now has very few chances to make it to the second round.
And even on 2nd round polls, Lepen's number are way better than Zemmour's :
Macron 55% ; Lepen 45%
Macron 65% ; Zemmour 35%
 
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I know poll numbers can be unreliable, but it seems like it's still an uphill battle for her.

candidates mostly focused on immigration
I'm curious about this. What are their stances on this? Especially for refugees?
Germany is famously accommodating for refugees, while France feels more closed, even passing laws like the burqa ban which make it unattractive for people from those countries.

Or in current events, is France looking to accommodate Ukrainian refugees?
 
Evry candidate stated France should welcome Ukrainian refugees. Except Zemmour. Even Lepen said so (which made many notice that, when migrants are white instead of black or brown, she's OK with them..."

Every left-wing candidate is pro-migrants. The more far-left they are, the mùore pro-immigration they are. ZEmmour and Lepen are very much anti-immigration. Pecresse and Macron have adopted a harder stance then what they usually stand for. Pecresse was forced to do so because, With Zemmour as a candidate she needed to seem strong on that issue to avoid having the right-wing of her party going with Zemmour. Then Macron had to haarden his stance too, not to seem to weak compared to Pecresse. Kind of a domino-effect...


This chart is outdated

This one is more up to date


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And I don't understand how the poll you mentionned could give Macron about 85% chance of winning : 2nd round polls have Macron polling at 53, Lepen at 47%. Political analyst are starting to talk about a possible Lepen win. I have to confess, I'm getting really worried...

Recently, Macron has bit hit with some real bad shit : It had been revealed that he's been relying a lot on private consulting firms, particulary McKinsey who received a lot of government money and doesn't even paid any taxes in France...
 
Props to @Johan for getting us interested in this election & offering some insight.

So unless I'm wrong, is the the fight now about who gets all those Mélenchon supporters?
Also, I'm hearing that no French prez has been re-elected in 20 years? That's pretty crazy.
 
Thanks for the update, Johan. You guys got a run-off between Macron and LePen now, huh? Any predictions on the winner and/or turnout to vote?
So unless I'm wrong, is the the fight now about who gets all those Mélenchon supporters?
Yep. The same run-off than 5 years ago (Which Macron with 66% of the votes) but things are different this time :
1) Macron is the current president, he can't run on "change", he must defend his record.
2) Lepen has completely changed her image and ran is running a very different campaign than 5 years ago.


Roussel, Hidalgo, Jadot and Pecresse endorsed Macron
Zemmour and Dupont-Aignan endorsed Lepen
Melenchon and Poutou refused to endorse anyone but told his votersq not to vote for Lepen (which mean they can either vote for Macron or not vote at all).
Lassalle and Arthaud have refused to endorse anyone
Also, although Mélenchon told his voters not a single vote should go to Lepen, polls have shown some might go to her. And although Pecresse endorsed Macron, some in her party told they will vote for Lepen...

Prediction ? I think Macron is gonna be re-elected. I hope so. But a Lepen victory isn't completely off the table and I'm gonna keep my fingers crossed for the next two weeks...


The traditionnals 2nd round debate will be on April 20th.
 
Macron’s promises from five years ago, to turn France into a hub of entrepreneurship with a focus on opportunities for younger people, remain only partly fulfilled. Mr. Macron shifted his focus too quickly to vanity projects that have little to do with the lives of ordinary voters—and sometimes hurt them. After some initial successes with labor-law reform, Mr. Macron derailed his presidency with a tax increase on diesel fuel. This piece of green posturing sparked the yellow-vest protests in late 2018 from which his administration has never fully recovered
 

gmase

Nattering Nabob of Negativism
Throw the bum out then. Marine Le Pen!
 
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