StanScratch
My Penis Is Dancing!
Every four years, we are inundated with polls. One shows Romney with a clear lead. The other will show Obama with a clear lead. The one which showed Obama with the clear lead, then Romney with the clear lead now shows a tie.
This is where one of my favorite sites, Premium Link Upgrade , comes into play.
For those not familiar with the site, they not only analyse the poll results, local and national, but analyse them for what they are worth. A poll taken by the Huffington Post will obviously have an Obama leaning. A poll taken by NewsMax will obviously lean towards Romney. Nate Silver takes all of this into account, along with each state and region's voting history and analyses it statistically.
Those who are familiar with the sabermetrics are also familiar with PECOTA, Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, a statistical method used to predict a baseball player's future performance named after former Brave/Royal/Met Bill Pecota. Silver is the dude who came up with that analyses. So, he knows stats. He came to prominence during the 2008 elections, with some rather accurate predictions of the pre-Presidential primaries. And though his prediction for the actual election was not 100 percent spot on, it was rather close (he was only wrong on Indiana and one district of Nebraska).
He has since expanded his analysis to not only Senate and House races, but some local elections.
This year, Silver and FiveThirtyEight are back at it again, with always a thoroughly fascinating look and projection at the upcoming election.
This is where one of my favorite sites, Premium Link Upgrade , comes into play.
For those not familiar with the site, they not only analyse the poll results, local and national, but analyse them for what they are worth. A poll taken by the Huffington Post will obviously have an Obama leaning. A poll taken by NewsMax will obviously lean towards Romney. Nate Silver takes all of this into account, along with each state and region's voting history and analyses it statistically.
Those who are familiar with the sabermetrics are also familiar with PECOTA, Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, a statistical method used to predict a baseball player's future performance named after former Brave/Royal/Met Bill Pecota. Silver is the dude who came up with that analyses. So, he knows stats. He came to prominence during the 2008 elections, with some rather accurate predictions of the pre-Presidential primaries. And though his prediction for the actual election was not 100 percent spot on, it was rather close (he was only wrong on Indiana and one district of Nebraska).
He has since expanded his analysis to not only Senate and House races, but some local elections.
This year, Silver and FiveThirtyEight are back at it again, with always a thoroughly fascinating look and projection at the upcoming election.
