I think Indiana and Pennsylvania could make an interesting addition to your list. Having 11 electoral votes, Indiana is a state that bears an amount of electoral weight worth considering. IN voters were with Obama in 2008, the first time the state of IN has given its electoral votes to a Democrat in more than 40 years. It will be interesting to see if '08 was a fluke, or if IN is slowly shifting from Red to Blue (I doubt it, but maybe it is turning purple, i.e. swing). As I've said in other threads, I think the gay marriage issue will play in a lot of Midwest states, and seeing as how IN voters just recently supported a gay marriage ban initiative, it will be interesting to see how their votes are cast.
Pennsylvania as well, could be an interesting watch during this election cycle. 20 electoral votes (down from 21 in the last election) makes PA a pretty big player in the scheme of Presidential electoral politics. Traditionally a swing state, the polling thus far can't really seem to pick one candidate over the other, with most polls favoring Obama by what could essentially amount to any poll's margin of error. PA has an interesting voting history in Presidential elections, and even though the electoral votes of PA haven't gone to a Republican since 1988, the popular vote has been close enough to make some Democratic hopefuls hold their breath.
Most interesting to me, in this election, will be voter turnout. Voter registration and turnout, by and within all groups, exploded during the 2008 election in anticipation of Obama. Not sure how many people will be as motivated this time around. Some previously staunch supporters have soured to Obama, some of the voter turnout was, what I believe to be, a cosmetic, somewhat insincere and unrepeatable phenomenon, and I really do believe that the voter turnout for the last election, especially among young people (18-24) is just going to turn out to have been an anomaly. Never underestimate American apathy. Also, wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans turnout in larger numbers than usual (Republicans, historically, have higher turnout than Democrats do, although the Presidential incumbent party usually has increased turnout regardless, so who knows) as Republicans, for the lack of a better term, seem angrier than usual during this campaign season, and pissed off Republicans usually act, in one way or another, to solve their problems in significant numbers.
I **** politics. But, campaigns and elections, and the involved tactics to campaigning and more importantly, winning, are just too detailed and interesting in my opinion to turn away. Its like a free look into a recurring sociology project.
:dunno:
